When Trump, as he often does, makes mutually exclusive promises to different groups, which ones should we believe? Here is my analysis:
- Promises that operate in the financial or psychological best interests of the narcissist-in-chief can be trusted.
- Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.
- If there is a history of Trump being talked out of something by the adults in the room, don’t rely on the adults prevailing in the second Trump term, because they won’t be there.
With these principles in mind, what can we expect from Trump 2.0? Here’s a partial list:
- Tariffs, and lots of them. Trump has always been a mercantilist.
- Tax cuts and deregulation for business. Trump is a faux populist, not a real one.
- Lots of talk about nuclear war, but no real action. Trump’s one virtue is that he isn’t a warmonger–he just plays one on TV.
- Plenty of petty corruption, just as before.
- An end to as many federal programs as he can find addressing climate change.
- No federal abortion ban, but plenty of regulatory actions behind the scenes to please the anti-abortion base.
- An end to America’s support of Ukraine, with lots of kind words for Putin.
- More attempts to manage trade with China in exchange for a free hand with Taiwan.
- A reduced commitment to NATO.
- Expensive and draconian measures to reduce immigration, followed by a refusal to follow court orders overturning them.