To what extent does RFK represent a threat to Biden? And who are his potential voters? Let’s break it down.
There are two fairly large groups of undecided voters: centrist, establishment Republicans who supported Nikki Haley over Trump; and young progressives who are angry with Biden over Gaza. RFK won’t get any support from either of these groups. His arguments about vaccines, Ukraine, and January 6 are consistent with Trump’s positions, not Haley’s, and he hasn’t said anything critical about Israel and the war.
He’s not going to take the conspiracy theorist vote away from Trump. When it is all said and done, regardless of what the polls say today, he’s not going to be a major factor in this race unless it is so excruciatingly close that he can play Ralph Nader to Biden’s Al Gore.