Some commentators think the 2024 GOP primaries will resemble those of 2016, with Trump running in his own lane and the right-wing establishment fragmented by a large number of candidates. Are they right?
Maybe–the number of legitimate opposition candidates remains to be seen. That said, the dynamics of the primary season will be completely different this time. In 2016, if you weren’t paying attention, you could believe that Trump was a brilliant outsider businessman, unencumbered by ideology, who could and would make deals to make America great again. No one will make that mistake this time around. Trump will be running purely to vindicate his outrageous behavior in office and to avenge himself on anyone who didn’t give him his unquestioning support. There will be nothing in the package for the American people–not even those in his party.