Some of the results of the 2022 elections will have a major impact on 2024. Consider the following:
- DO THE TRUMP ANOINTED CANDIDATES WIN? Trump endorsed apparently weak candidates in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Ohio. They are not polling well at this point in time. If they win, GOP leaders and voters will attribute their success to Trump’s involvement, and assume he still has plenty of clout with the electorate as a whole in spite of his obvious personal shortcomings and his failure in 2020. If they don’t, he’s going to be blamed, and DeSantis is going to start looking a lot better to right-wing 2024 primary voters.
- DOES DESANTIS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS? If DeSantis wins a resounding victory in a state with a history of agonizingly close races, it will increase his appeal for 2024. If not, he’s just another guy, and the GOP may want to look elsewhere.