Jamelle Bouie thinks Biden’s position in late 2021 is analogous to Reagan’s around 1982. Is he right?
The analogy is not ridiculous, but no, because the condition of the country is quite different. Reagan’s GOP was crushed in the 1982 elections because we were mired in a deep recession engineered by the Fed in order to put an end to inflation. When the Fed eased up, the economy roared back to life–just in time for the 1984 election. Biden, on the other hand, has already presided over a recovery, spending plenty of public money in the process. There is no “Morning in America” in the offing; in a way, it is already here, but is insufficiently appreciated by the public and the MSM.
That doesn’t mean Biden’s position is hopeless–not by a long shot. Inflation will probably be a distant memory by 2024, and maybe even by November, 2022. The GOP will be campaigning against the extension of popular public benefits. And, of course, there is the Trump factor. Surely moderate opinion will rally against him, as it did in 2020, if he runs again. Even if he doesn’t, all of the GOP contenders will be falling all over themselves to win his approval during the primaries, which is almost the same thing.