Recent history tells us that undecided voters break against the party in power in presidential elections when the administration is unpopular, as it is today. It happened in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Does that provide a guide for the midterms?
Not exactly. The outcome of the midterms will revolve less around swing voters and more around the willingness of less engaged 2024 Trump voters to go to the polls to support lackluster Republicans. Angry Democrats and independents will make sure their voices are heard; will waves of commercials attacking the left for being weak and woke do the same for the right?
The outcome of several key Senate races, particularly in the Midwest, will depend on the answer to that question. The polls suggest that those races could go either way. I make no predictions at this point.