Gas prices are bad, but they seem to have hit a bit of a lull, and the world has adapted, at least for now. Trump appears to believe the political price of continuing the blockade is worth it, because the alternatives are debatably even worse. In the meantime, the Iranians are neither giving in nor escalating. We seem to have reached a shaky equilibrium.
What could change it? The Iranians will lose some of their leverage after the midterms, which are now less than three months away. The collateral effects of the Ukraine war could get out of control. The most obvious possibility is the popping of an AI bubble. The American economy is being kept afloat by the spending of the affluent, which in turn is fueled by the soaring stock market; a dramatic fall in the latter would put an end to the former.