According to an article in this morning’s NYT, Trump has been advised that we do not have enough Patriots to deal with Iranian countermeasures if we escalate. For once, he is taking that advice and not doubling down. What happens next?
If nukes are off the table, Trump can either try to make an Obama deal as quickly as possible or he can rely on the blockade to bring the Iranians to their knees. The latter course will undoubtedly take months–possibly even years. It means higher oil prices, with everything that entails, for the foreseeable future.
Will the Iranians even agree to an Obama deal at this point? A significant faction within the regime appears to want to rub Trump’s nose in it. We’ll see.