J.D. clearly believes the war is the greatest obstacle to a successful campaign for the nomination in 2028. He is undoubtedly correct; if the war, with its corresponding increase in prices, is still going on in 2028, he will be toast. But what if it isn’t? Is he home free?
The road map to beating J.D. requires one of his competitors to peel off about 25 percent of the base and to win all of the Haley vote. Even without the war, J.D.’s hold on the base is shaky on the following issues: AI/Big Tech/data centers; tariffs; and his marriage to Usha. Could that amount to 25 percent of the base?
In my opinion, yes. There is a lane for DeSantis if he has the nerve and the mental agility to take it.