Blessed Were the Peacemakers

The Trump war is back on–sort of. It began as an attempt at regime change, morphed into a battle to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, and now is all about the Strait of Hormuz. That fact, in and of itself, is a defeat for Trump, since the Strait was open before his war.

The great man, as always, needs more leverage to impose his will on the Iranians. Where can he find it? Reducing government revenues through the blockade and destroying Iran’s conventional forces didn’t work. It isn’t realistically possible to eliminate the threat to shipping in the Strait by bombing speedboats and drone factories. That leaves bombing civilian infrastructure, a large-scale ground invasion, or using nukes as potentially viable options.

More likely, Trump will ultimately give in for domestic political reasons, and the Iranians will control the Strait for the foreseeable future.

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