Month: April 2024

Two genuinely pro-life NYT commentators, David French and Ross Douthat, are appalled at the GOP’s reaction to the Alabama and Arizona legal decisions. The only conclusion they can draw is that the GOP isn’t truly pro-life. For that, they largely blame Trump. Are they right?

The real test for a truly pro-life person is whether he is willing to support substantial enhancements to the welfare state at his expense to benefit the women who are compelled to give birth in exchange for giving up the right to abortion. Does that sound like a majority of the GOP to you? Can you ever think of a time when it did?

Not in my lifetime, that’s for sure. Trump may bear some responsibility for this, just as he can be blamed for making Christianity less attractive to young people, but the genuinely pro-life cohort of the GOP has always been a small minority. The vast majority of reactionaries are about power and pain, not love.

To what extent does RFK represent a threat to Biden? And who are his potential voters? Let’s break it down.

There are two fairly large groups of undecided voters: centrist, establishment Republicans who supported Nikki Haley over Trump; and young progressives who are angry with Biden over Gaza. RFK won’t get any support from either of these groups. His arguments about vaccines, Ukraine, and January 6 are consistent with Trump’s positions, not Haley’s, and he hasn’t said anything critical about Israel and the war.

He’s not going to take the conspiracy theorist vote away from Trump. When it is all said and done, regardless of what the polls say today, he’s not going to be a major factor in this race unless it is so excruciatingly close that he can play Ralph Nader to Biden’s Al Gore.

Netanyahu long since lost Thomas Friedman, whose love for the best side of Israel knows no bounds. Now he has lost the extremely hawkish Bret Stephens, and even Trump is making noises that don’t sound too great. Is this a warning sign?

You bet it is. If the Israeli government can’t even keep foreigners who almost always give it unqualified support on its side, it can’t expect any help from anyone outside its boundaries while the war drags on. It will be overstretched and completely isolated–all for the privilege of killing thousands of Palestinian noncombatants who aren’t responsible for the war.

The people who watched the total eclipse, regardless of ideology or religious beliefs, found it utterly exhilarating. Why?

For the same reason we all stare out to sea when we’re at the beach; we’re wired to believe in an awesome (in the correct meaning of the word), benevolent God, because we know only too well that we’re likely to screw things up on our own.

In the classic movie “Key Largo,” a character played by Humphrey Bogart confronts a gangster named Johnny Rocco. The Bogart character asks the question, “What does Rocco want?’ He answers the question himself–“More!” Rocco agrees.

If you were to ask the same question of Trump, which is completely appropriate, given his ethics and enthusiasm for gangsters, what would he say? The answer would be “Power.” Having power proves that he is the man, and everyone else isn’t. It gives him the ability to exact revenge on his enemies. It forces people who think they are better than he is to suck up to him. It makes him the center of attention at all times. It proves that those people in Manhattan who were contemptuous of him all of those years were wrong.

It has everything to do with his own emotional needs, and nothing to do with the best interests of the country, which are of no concern to him whatsoever.

There is a lot of discussion these days in the publications I read about how the left is more depressed than the right. Is that something which arises naturally from liberal ideology, or is something else going on?

Depression is clearly associated with a feeling of helplessness. The McConnell Project–a reactionary judiciary, a legislature in which reactionaries are overrepresented due to gerrymandering and the vagaries of the federal system, and the filibuster–effectively blocks the left from implementing its agenda on the federal level, even when it is popular with the public as a whole. Putting an end to the McConnell Project would require the left to engage in the same kind of illiberal tactics that the right openly and unashamedly embraces, which is unthinkable today, although it may not be at some point in the future. Call it the Polish Problem.

The bottom line is that reactionaries have every reason to be happy; they are running wild in the red states, and the Supreme Court is doing their bidding on the federal level. They are winning! The left’s gloom thus has nothing to do with ideology, and everything to do with process.

Having previously floated a 15-week national abortion ban balloon, Trump is now saying that the issue should be left to the states. Should we assume this is his final word on the matter?

Of course not! Trump changes positions on anything other than his own interests and awesomeness as easily as he breathes. Even if he does now believe that a national abortion ban is politically imprudent, that doesn’t mean he won’t use the Comstock Act or the FDA or the Post Office to deprive women in blue states of their rights. The MSM need to ask him questions about those issues, as well.

One of Trump’s attorneys has come to Mar-a-Lago to prep him for his upcoming New York trial. He has a pretty good idea what to expect from him.

A: Good morning, Mr. Trump.

T: Damn right it’s a good morning! You know why? Because I’m finally going to get my vengeance on that racist New York prosecutor.

A: I’ll do my best to get you justice.

T: No, I mean VENGEANCE! I want to see blood! They need to pay for what they’ve done to me!

A: This is a courtroom, not the OK Corral. And I know you like to compare yourself to Al Capone, but trials aren’t the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre.

T: This one needs to be different! And that pipsqueak Cohen! I want him destroyed. DESTROYED! Do you hear me? That’s what Roy Cohn would do.

A: Roy Cohn is dead, and my job is to convince a jury to acquit you. That means showing you in the best possible light.

T: I can’t wait to get on the stand. It’s the best form of campaigning. I’ll show all of liberal America what I think of them. The base will love it.

A: There are several problems with that.

T: What?

A: First of all, the trial won’t be on TV.

T: Make them put it on TV. The rules don’t apply to me. I’m the f— PRESIDENT, for God’s sake!

A: I’ll try, but it probably won’t work. Next, the judge won’t let you pontificate on the stand. He’ll shut you down.

T: Again, it’s your job to keep him under control. I have a First Amendment right to say whatever I want. Plus, I’m Donald Trump. The rules don’t apply to me.

A: Based on what has happened so far, you really need to be on your best behavior, because you need to look like a victim to the jury.

T: I’m good at playing a victim. And I have some ideas about who should be on the jury.

A: I’m listening.

T: We need as many small business owners as possible. Guys who hustle for a living. They know how tough it is out there. They do whatever they have to do to get by. Those people love me.

A: That makes sense. What else?

T: The poorly educated. They love me, and I love them.

A: I can’t imagine why. I’ll keep it in mind. The last thing is, I’m going to do my best to keep you off the stand.

T: WHY? IT’S MY PLATFORM! IT’S HOW I RUN FOR PRESIDENT!

A: Because you’re the guy who told 30,000 lies while in office. If you testify, you may be asked about every one of them.

T: That’s from that prick Jeff Bezos. He’s the liar. HE’S THE LIAR!

A: If we manage to destroy Cohen, and I’ll do my best, we may be able to keep you off the stand. That would be best for everyone. But we may need to put you on. If we do, you’re going to have to keep control of yourself. Looking like an angry maniac won’t help the cause.

T: I’ll just be me. It’s always worked before. It always will. I’m here for a purpose, you know. Little people can’t touch me.

A: That’s enough for today.

Many, but not all, of the Founding Fathers owned slaves. It was a system they inherited from their parents and grandparents; they didn’t create it. They were, to a man, uncomfortable with slavery, but they considered it essential to their economic survival. Given the difficulties of making a profit as a plantation owner in the late 18th and early 19th centuries–most of them died heavily in debt–they might well have been right.

Nevertheless, they stand condemned for their hypocrisy and inhumanity by today’s progressives. But judge not lest ye be judged, folks; we have been knowingly poisoning the environment for at least 30 years now, but how many progressives have been willing to give up their quality of life to go carbon neutral immediately for the benefit of future generations? What will our successors say about the greed and selfishness of our fearless crusaders for justice a hundred years from now?

Save your money on statues, because at some point, our grandchildren will be pulling them down. That’s the way the world works.

There are essentially three wildly different opinions on the Gaza war among Americans. The right completely identifies with Israel, thinks the Palestinian population as a whole is responsible for October 7, and demands unqualified support for the war, regardless of the civilian death toll. The left identifies with the Palestinians, thinks the Israelis are an evil occupying force, and demands a cease-fire, presumably with Hamas remaining in control of Gaza. The center wants a hostage release, an Israeli victory over Hamas, safety for the civilians, and progress on a Palestinian state. The centrists have supported Biden for the most part, but want to see concrete progress on their agenda; otherwise, they are prepared to support conditions on American aid.

Biden has no realistic hope of converting either the left or the right. He is under pressure to show that his insider approach can actually produce visible and meaningful results with the Israeli government. If Bibi doesn’t start listening to him, expect him to exert additional pressure in public, because to continue to defer to a government largely run by right-wing extremists without actually embracing their goals is to forfeit all of his remaining support on the issue.

Here is the list of the most important wedge issues facing Biden and the Democrats, along with their likely responses:

1. GAZA: The left wants a much harder line on Israel. Biden needs their votes, but he needs the support of liberal Jews, as well. THE RESPONSE: Biden is already moving to accommodate the progressives, although only part of that is motivated by domestic political concerns. For once, Trump is helping himself by staying quiet on this issue, but it is unlikely he will be able to maintain discipline as the campaign goes on.
2. CRIME: Local news programs consist almost entirely of crime stories. The public is consequently convinced that crime is soaring, particularly in urban hellholes, and that Biden is at fault. THE RESPONSE: The crime wave began under Trump, but has receded since. In any event, the president is not Batman; crime is almost exclusively a local issue.
3. THE BORDER: Abbott’s busing program has resulted in major financial impacts in blue cities, which has made immigration a wedge issue for the blue team for the first time. THE RESPONSE: Blame the GOP for opportunistically blocking legislation that would have helped resolve the problem.
4. TRANS RIGHTS: Many left-leaning voters are troubled by the more extreme claims made by trans advocates. THE RESPONSE: Support the rights of trans people to avoid discrimination and oppression but reject their claims to be “normal.” In any event, this is not really a federal issue, and it won’t motivate millions of people to cross over and vote for Trump.

Here is the list of the most dangerous wedge issues for Trump and the Republicans, along with their likely responses:

1. TRUMP AND HIS LEGAL TROUBLES: Polls consistently show that between 10 and 20 percent of normal Republican voters won’t vote for Trump in November. January 6, the impeachments, Stormygate, and the like are the principal reason for this. THE RESPONSE: Since Trump has become, if anything, even more militant about the “rigged” election, the only possibility is false equivalence. Biden is corrupt, too! Look at Hunter!
2. ABORTION: The midterms are a cautionary tale here; plenty of moderate GOP members, particularly women, will cross over to protect their rights. THE RESPONSE: Ambiguity. Float trial balloons and walk away. Support federal legislation at times, but not others. Just don’t get pinned down to a position that will cost votes and divide the party.
3. UKRAINE: Putin is hardly universally popular among GOP voters. THE RESPONSE: More ambiguity. Blame Biden for the war and promise to end it quickly without saying how, although we already know the answer to that one.
4. GUNS: The GOP consistently supports its base over the wishes of the vast majority of Americans on this issue. That won’t change between now and November. THE RESPONSE: Pretend the problem really revolves around mental health issues, but do nothing to resolve them.

The vast majority of Americans will make their choice in November based on identity and cultural issues. Most of the remainder will decide based on their perceptions of the state of the economy. Does that mean the rest of the issues just don’t matter?

In a close election, no. Wedge issues–the kind that cause some voters who would normally support one party to split a ticket, or to change sides–can be decisive in swing states and districts. As a result, they deserve considerable attention.

My next two posts will consequently address wedge issues first from the GOP perspective, and then the Democrats. In each case, I will be identifying the issues that are of concern and how the party in question will try to paper over them.

As I noted in my previous post, the Israeli government’s indifference to suffering in Gaza is an effort to split the difference between either ethnic cleansing or genocide (favored by the extreme right cabinet members) and the counterinsurgency strategy supported by the American government. If this continues, Israel will be forced to pick up the entire bill for occupying and rebuilding Gaza. It will also be making certain that Joe Biden is the last pro-Israel Democratic president in my lifetime.

These are terrible problems, but Bibi probably doesn’t care, because splitting the difference is keeping him in power in the short run. Putting his political survival ahead of the national interest will have the impact described in the old Fram oil filter commercial–pay me a little more, or a lot later.

There are two different ways for an Israeli to view the war in Gaza. If you think Hamas is the enemy, but not the population as a whole, you want to separate the fighters from the civilians and keep the latter group as safe as possible. If you have concluded that the entire population of Gaza is at fault for October 7, however, it makes perfect sense to kill as many Palestinians as possible; there is effectively no distinction between militants and civilians.

The Israeli cabinet clearly includes representatives of both groups. As a result, the Israeli military is splitting the difference. It is not engaged in genocide–it is making some grudging efforts to protect the population–but it is only doing the minimum required by the rest of the world to take care of the civilians instead of embracing the idea of separating them from the fighters.

It is the classic Bibi move–show the Israeli public that you are the indispensable man by standing up to the rest of the world while maintaining a leash on the absolute worst impulses of the far right. It keeps him in power, but results in incoherent policy and stores up future problems for his successors.