The movie “Civil War” is getting a lot of attention from pundits and moviegoers alike. I haven’t seen it, and don’t really intend to, but it is clear from the reviews that it is intended to remind us of the real life consequences of a civil war. There is no attempt made to describe its causes.
I have written extensively about the difficulties involved in secession in the 21st century. I don’t believe a civil war on the scale of the first one is plausible. There are two scenarios, however, in which I can imagine a degree of political violence in this country that would have been unthinkable until recently:
- Trump loses the popular vote but wins in the Electoral College. Demonstrations that include some property damage and a few personal injuries break out in blue state cities. Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and sends troops to shoot down the demonstrators. The left doesn’t have guns, and it continues to believe in liberal democracy, so it does not unite to fight back. The response is limited to targeted killings of reactionary officials by a handful of militants. It achieves little.
- Trump loses both the popular vote and in the Electoral College. He, of course, refuses to accept the outcome. In rural areas, particularly in red states, some local and state officials, backed by law enforcement and militias, announce they do not recognize Biden as their president and will no longer cooperate with or take direction from any federal officials except those working for Trump. In the end, after unsuccessful attempts at negotiation, Biden is compelled to invoke the Insurrection Act to arrest the rebels. This cannot be done without some violence, assassination attempts ensue, and militia activity increases dramatically. The reactionary right as a whole does not rise, however, and the attempts at insurrection ultimately fail.