Hamas and the Israelis have extended the pause in the fighting for two more days in order to exchange more hostages for fairly low value prisoners. The current exchange rate is 3:1. What happens when the pause expires?
The most important long-range questions, of course, revolve around the length of the occupation and who runs Gaza after the Israelis leave. The short-range questions are as follows:
- Will the Israelis agree to release active Hamas fighters trapped in the tunnels to Syria or Lebanon in exchange for the rest of the hostages?
- What kind of campaign will the Israelis run in the parts of Gaza that they do not currently occupy?
As to #1, my best guess is that the current exchange rate will continue to operate, although Israeli public opinion will make deals involving active Hamas fighters harder to sell, so this is hardly a given. As to #2, world public opinion will not let the Israelis engage in any kind of shock and awe tactics in areas that have been set aside for Palestinian civilians. The Israeli campaign will consequently look more like a low-key police action, with commando raids and identity checks instead of bombs, missiles, and tanks.