Germany has decided to suck it up and increase its defense budget dramatically, both now and in the future. In light of the, shall we say, difficult history involving Russia and Germany, a well-armed and hostile German state is the worst possible scenario for Putin short of nuclear war or a coup at home. It means he will be the loser even if he gets everything he wants in Ukraine.
Ukraine has recruited an international volunteer IT army to fight Russian disinformation. Have the Chinese noticed? If they decide to attack Taiwan, it isn’t just the Taiwanese and the Americans with whom they will have to contend. This is a completely new phenomenon, and it shifts the balance of power against illiberal military aggressors.
India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE declined to openly condemn the invasion. The latter two are sending the message to us that they demand unconditional support for their military adventures, and that keeping the price of oil sky-high is more important than American friendship. The first is telling us that it still values its historic relationship with the Russians. Whether that translates into neutrality in a dispute with China remains to be seen.