The reduction in the national unemployment rate came as a pleasant, and even shocking, surprise to many pundits and economists. I’m really not sure why; things were bound to improve to some extent when the lockdowns ended. The Economist has referred to the new condition as the “90 percent economy;” I call it an “equilibrium.” Either way, what happens next is what really matters, and it depends primarily on consumer confidence, not the speed at which the remaining restrictions are removed.
The bad news is that the GOP is already taking the good news as a reason not to help state and local governments and to cut off supplementary unemployment benefits. You can anticipate an unpopular reduction in services and unnecessary job cuts, as well as more pain for the unemployed, in the near future.
The good news is that deliberately prolonging the recession to starve the innumerable small state and local beasts and to stick it to the unemployed will cost the GOP in November. Now that’s a reason to cheer!