Assume, for purposes of argument, that Trump is right, and that our foreign policy should be purely transactional–values, human rights, and international law are for chumps. He has once again given MBS a blank check. What do we get in return?
Low oil prices? Historically, the kingdom does whatever it thinks is in its best interests at any given time. Sometimes that means low prices; sometimes, not. Don’t count on it.
A force for stability in the Middle East? The man who basically kidnapped the prime minister of Lebanon, started a devastating war in Yemen, and probably ordered a murder in an embassy in Turkey? You cannot be serious!
The enemy of terrorism? There is some hope there, but the Saudis, like the Pakistanis, have historically played a double game on terrorism. The jury is out on this point.
A check on Iran? That’s backward thinking. We don’t have any great national interest in checking Iran. We’re there to assist the Saudis in their cold war with the Iranians. MBS, like Netanyahu, wants to fight Iran to the last American, and Trump is going along with it.
Arms sales and investment? Is the most powerful nation in the world really selling its military and diplomatic support for a few billion dollars and a handful of jobs building weapons?
The bottom line is that we can’t realistically ignore the Saudis, but we don’t have to write them any blank checks, either. That will ultimately lead to a war with Iran that helps the Saudis and Israelis, but in no way advances our national interests. This was supposed to be America first, remember?
Note to the reader: I will be on vacation until next Tuesday night. Regular postings will resume at that time.