It occurred to me this morning that May and Ryan are essentially in the same position–both are cat herders in the service of severely divided parties who maintain their positions simply because there is no obviously better alternative.
What would it take to reunify the GOP and the Tories? Defeat at the polls, of course. The two parties may have trouble identifying what they want, but everyone agrees on what they don’t.
The more I read about the Founding Fathers, the more I’m attracted to Madison, as opposed to the manic Hamilton and the mercurial Jefferson. With his intellect and even temper, he reminds me of one of our contemporaries–Barack Obama.
His claim to indispensability is based on his role in creating the Constitution. He was heavily involved in the effort to call the Constitutional Convention. He played a very significant part at the Convention. He wrote Federalist No. 10. He led the effort to ratify the Constitution in Virginia. Finally, he was the compiler and principal drafter of the Bill of Rights. No one has a better claim to be the Father of the Constitution–it’s not even close.
Nothing about the writing and approval of the Constitution was in any way inevitable. And so, America would be a far different place without him. The country that we know simply wouldn’t exist.
Now we know the answer to the question about a bad deal or no deal–it’s both!
The two leaders signed a document that is in the form of an agreement. Given that it contains no legally enforceable commitments binding either party, it might as well be no deal at all. In exchange for Kim’s signature on this vacuous document, Trump agreed to stop our joint military exercises with South Korea. And, of course, the whole exercise gave Kim more legitimacy and weakened the world’s resolve to maintain sanctions, so, to the extent that there is any kind of a deal, it’s a bad one.
It could obviously be worse–at least there’s no war. However, it clears the deck for the one Trump really wants with Iran.
What really jumps out at you is Trump’s apparent affection for the young dictator, which stands in stark contrast to his relationships with the G7 leaders. Maybe my prediction about the S6 won’t be satire, after all.
Jefferson was in France during the Constitutional Convention, which, for the sake of the country and his reputation, was probably a good thing. His tenure as a wartime governor was, to say the least, far from glorious. Most of the Declaration of Independence is a laundry list of grievances that is actually fairly banal. He was unscrupulous in his attacks on a government of which he was a prominent member. His greatest accomplishment as president, the Louisiana Purchase, violated his principles regarding the interpretation of the Constitution. The Kentucky Resolutions can be viewed as a precursor to secession. His embargo was a disaster. And that doesn’t even include his equivocation on slavery, and the Sally Hemings thing.
As with Hamilton, there are plenty of blots on his record, his undisputed intellectual brilliance notwithstanding. His claim to indispensability rests on four things:
Would American history have been dramatically different if, say, Madison had been the leader of the Republican Party between 1796 and 1808? My guess is no, but it is debatable, and we’ll never know.
One of the most memorable scenes in “A Man For All Seasons” features dialogue between Thomas More and Roper, his future son-in-law. When Roper says he would cut down all of the laws in England to get at the devil, More asks him where he will hide without them when the devil turns on him. More concludes that it is better, and safer, to keep the laws in place.
For some reason, I can’t help thinking about this every time Trump and his enablers complain about rules-based systems.
So Trump is now meeting with Kim.
His chance of success is quite slim.
A bad deal or none?
Guessing’s certainly fun.
It means more attention for him.
Saudi Arabia did, in fact, qualify for the World Cup. Their team stinks, so Trump won’t root for them. Brazil is still the choice.
With the notable exception of country music, the arts in America belong to Team Blue, and are its not-so-secret weapon. The Tonys in particular can be viewed as a pep rally for the team.
By any standard, last night’s broadcast of the Tonys was a huge success. If you weren’t moved by Bruce Springsteen and by the performance of the song from “The Band’s Visit,” you must be either deaf or heartless.
There is a lesson here for both artists and Democratic politicians. If you have a message that is genuine, human, and crafted to transcend partisan boundaries, you can find an audience on the other side.
Hamilton was a war hero, but his role in the Revolution was hardly decisive. He accomplished very little at the Constitutional Convention. The Federalist Papers, while historically important, made little difference during the ratification process. His “Report on Manufactures” was ahead of its time, and was rejected by Congress. His interventions into national politics after 1796 were almost uniformly disastrous for his party. At the time of his death, he was a spent volcano.
And yet, he was an indispensable Founding Father, because:
Would America be anything like the country it is today without him? Not a chance.
I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of being pushed around by Canadians. Just because they have a cool flag, and funny comedians, and a great hockey team, they think they have the right to tell the world what to do. In light of their history, it’s not surprising; after all, they invaded our country and burned the White House in 1814.
And so, I’m glad our president, as always, stood up for the cause of truth and called out Justin Trudeau for being the lying, bullying bastard that he really is.
Or not.
During the 2016 campaign, many of the GOP candidates made strong (and completely warranted) statements about Trump’s unfitness for office. After the primaries were over, however, they closed ranks around him, because they were afraid of retaliation, and wanted to be re-elected.
Trump’s tariffs strike at the heart of conventional GOP ideology, and damage the economic interests of GOP-leaning businessmen. GOP leaders have responded, not by trying to restrain Trump, but with mild statements of disapproval, because they are afraid of retaliation, and want to be re-elected.
In light of this, what do you think is going to happen if Trump starts a war and begins a clampdown on our civil rights? Do you think the GOP leaders will stand firm in support of the Constitution, or will they acquiesce, because they are afraid of retaliation, and want to be re-elected?
It’s June, 2019. Tired of having to go abroad and listen to lectures from the other G7 leaders, Trump has decided to skip the G7 and host a bash with his fellow strongmen, which has been dubbed the “S6.” The meeting is at his hotel, because, well, making money off his own party regardless of ethics rules is what a proper strongman would do.
The guests are arriving. Duterte is the first to make an appearance.
T: Rodrigo, you old son-of-a-bitch!
D: Trump, you son-of-a-whore! Good to see you!
T: Don’t pay any attention to those demonstrators out there. Real Americans love you. They love a man who gets things done.
D: Absolutely. Look at my poll ratings. Shooting drug dealers without trial has done wonders for me politically.
T: Yeah, I wish I could do something like that here.
D: Why don’t you try it? If I can do it, you can.
T: It’s just not so easy here. Sessions will go along with separating immigrant families at the border and trying to repeal Obamacare through the judicial system, but he won’t let me do that.
D: Just tell him what to do, and if he doesn’t do it, fire him. That’s what a real strongman does. He sees Xi entering the room. Excuse me–I need to talk to Xi about a deal.
T: Why not just make it with me?
D: The Chinese are more reliable than you are. No offense. He wanders off to talk to Xi. Putin enters the room.
T: Vladimir, good to see you! I’ve been taking a lot of abuse for you, you know.
P: Well, I sympathize, but you haven’t given me proper credit for winning the election for you. How’s the investigation going?
T: Fake news! Fake news!
P: Why don’t you just shut it down?
T: People would assume I’m guilty of something if I did. I’d get killed politically.
P: Who cares? A proper strongman would never put up with that crap. You need to shut down the press and take care of Mueller. I can help you with some poison if you want.
T: It’s just not that easy here.
P: Donald, I keep telling you, you need to stop whining about how hard it is to be a real strongman. Just do it! Show some balls! It’s the only way you’ll get any respect.
Erdogan has arrived.
T: Hey, there’s Erdogan! Have you met my friend Vlad?
E: Of course. We’re fighting each other in Syria. I shot down one of his planes.
P: Thanks for reminding me.
T: Would you like a drink? I don’t give anything for free at my hotels, but it’s happy hour.
E: I’m a good Muslim. I don’t drink.
T: Oh, that’s right. The dirty religion. Well, you’re a strongman, so you’re still OK in my book.
The final guest has arrived.
ALL, IN UNISON: Kim! They sound like they’re greeting Norm at Cheers.
T: Glad you could make it! How’s the fake denuclearization program going?
K: It’s brilliant! Western reporters will believe anything if you show them a few pictures.
T: No proper strongman would give up his nukes. I understood that from the beginning. No one else did.
K: And you got a Nobel Peace Prize for it. It was great.
T: Frankly, Moon is a pain in my butt. If you lobbed a few nukes at him, that would be OK with me.
K: I’ll think about it.
T: OK, listen up, everybody! Are you having a good time?
P: Absolutely. It’s a hell of a lot better than listening to that bitch Merkel talk crap about human rights.
T: I’ve got some special entertainment lined up for us. First, we have front row seats for a WWE event. There’s nothing like professional wrestling to remind you that rules are for losers, and power is the only thing that matters.
X: What else?
T: I still have some connections at the Miss Universe pageant. Everyone is invited to go backstage! To the winners, go the spoils!
E: You’ll have to count me out on that one unless they’re wearing burqas.
T: Everyone else on board? Let’s go! They leave.
On the EPA head known as Scott.
On his record, there’s more than one blot.
If you want to ask me
We should all be Scott-free.
His survival’s more likely than not.
Given that Trump knows little about nuclear weapons and less about Korean history, and has no apparent inclination to learn anything between now and June 12, it is impossible to believe that he will leave Singapore with a good deal with Kim. That leaves two alternatives: a bad deal; or none at all.
What would that mean?
A bad deal would take one of two forms: either a vague concept of phased arms and sanctions reduction, with the details to be filled in later; or a detailed version of the same thing. The first could easily morph, over time, into no deal, given Bolton’s opposition to a diplomatic solution and North Korea’s record of ultimately walking away from phased agreements. In either event, the world would lose its appetite for enforcing sanctions, and Kim will wind up regaining his economic and diplomatic contacts without losing all of his nuclear program.
No deal could mean either an agreement just to meet again, or an acrimonious split. Either way, enforcement of sanctions will be weakened, and Trump will be faced with the stark choice of either containment or war.
In short, unless you’re rooting for Trump to win a Nobel Prize, don’t get your hopes too high. On the other hand, it would be kind of fun to watch Trump and the GOP twist themselves into a pretzel defending an agreement which provides fewer protections than the Iran deal that they just trashed.
Trump reportedly doesn’t really want to go to Canada today, and doesn’t plan to stay for the whole affair. You can understand why. He won’t be able to stay at one of his hotels, it will cut into “Executive Time,” and everyone is going to give him boring lectures about democracy and free trade. Hanging out with Kim and Dennis Rodman, let alone Putin or Xi, is a lot more fun than that.
Will he confront the G6 directly, or will he be his usual passive-aggressive self and wait until he comes home? Will this be the end of the annual summits, at least for now? For an alternative scenario, watch for tomorrow’s post.