Vladimir Putin could undoubtedly annex the portions of Ukraine that are under the military control of his local allies if he chose to do so. Thus far he hasn’t, for the following reasons:
- It would antagonize the West, and could lead to additional sanctions;
- He would become politically and financially responsible for the government of the area, which would be unnecessarily risky and expensive; and
- His ultimate objective is to make all of Ukraine, not just the eastern portion of it, a Russian vassal state. Annexing the east would leave a rump Ukrainian state with fewer pro-Russian voters to influence the government; it would also make it more difficult to swap an effective return of east Ukraine to government control for Russian predominance in foreign and economic matters.
Similarly, the Israeli government, in an ideal world (at least in their eyes), would like to annex the West Bank, but has not done so, because:
- The rest of the world will explode in anger;
- The Palestinians would undoubtedly fight back; and
- Annexation would require the government to address the issue of a large, and growing, Palestinian population within a Jewish state. It has been observed many times that Israel, with the West Bank, can be Jewish or democratic, but not both. The logic of the situation would result in the creation of a Palestinian “homeland” similar to those created by the white South African government in the 20th Century or ethnic cleansing. Better to avoid that issue by pretending that the current condition is temporary.
The question for the day is whether the election of Trump changes these calculations at all. In Putin’s case, he is likely to have a freer hand to deal with Ukraine, but annexation would not help him accomplish his objective, so the answer is almost certainly no. In the case of the West Bank, you can already see evidence that the Israeli far right is becoming emboldened. Annexation, with all of its consequences, is by no means out of the question in the foreseeable future.