If Erdogan is reconsidering his alliances, his analysis would have to go something like this:
- The Russian Empire, which Putin is essentially wants to recreate, was the historic enemy of the Ottoman Empire, which is Erdogan’s dream state.
- The US and the EU have far more to offer Turkey from an economic perspective than the Russians do.
- The US and the EU agree with him that Assad should be removed from power. Putin is Assad’s chief protector.
- On the other hand, Putin doesn’t lecture him about human rights. In fact, he may aspire to create a political system that looks like Putin’s Russia.
This list strongly suggests that sticking with the West is the better deal, and that he probably just wants to keep his options open to force the EU and the US to stop complaining about him. If he really wants to make himself a new sultan, and he’s willing to make concessions on Syria, however, the possibility of a realignment cannot be completely dismissed.