Would China Work as a Liberal Democracy?

This question took me on an intellectual odyssey that started in Taiwan and ended with Federalist No. 10.  That may seem a bit odd, but stay with me here.

The natural initial answer is no, because the Chinese mainland has no historical experience of anything like liberal democracy, and the culture emphasizes the collective, not the individual.  That said, the government on Taiwan has evolved peacefully into a liberal democracy; the same is true of Japan and South Korea, both of which have elements of Chinese thought in their cultural DNA.  You cannot, therefore, completely dismiss the question at this stage.

China is obviously a vastly larger and more complex country than the three listed above, which is where Federalist No. 10 comes in.  Madison made the argument in No. 10 (in response to critics of the Constitution who believed that it gave the federal government too much power) that a republic would work better in a large state than in a small one due to the likely proliferation of factions, which would operate as a check on each other.  As a result, concerns about an overly powerful central government were misplaced.

Our national experience suggests that Madison was right, but only in the context of the argument to which he was trying to respond.  Our system does, indeed, contain lots of checks and balances (both legal and practical), and make strong central government difficult.  The real question, then, is whether a system with similar checks and balances would work in a country as large as China, with a history of strong central government, under today’s conditions.  In my opinion, the answer is no; the demands for quick and firm action from the government would just be too great.