Cromwell

One of Trump’s attorneys has come to Mar-a-Lago to prep him for his upcoming New York trial. He has a pretty good idea what to expect from him.

A: Good morning, Mr. Trump.

T: Damn right it’s a good morning! You know why? Because I’m finally going to get my vengeance on that racist New York prosecutor.

A: I’ll do my best to get you justice.

T: No, I mean VENGEANCE! I want to see blood! They need to pay for what they’ve done to me!

A: This is a courtroom, not the OK Corral. And I know you like to compare yourself to Al Capone, but trials aren’t the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre.

T: This one needs to be different! And that pipsqueak Cohen! I want him destroyed. DESTROYED! Do you hear me? That’s what Roy Cohn would do.

A: Roy Cohn is dead, and my job is to convince a jury to acquit you. That means showing you in the best possible light.

T: I can’t wait to get on the stand. It’s the best form of campaigning. I’ll show all of liberal America what I think of them. The base will love it.

A: There are several problems with that.

T: What?

A: First of all, the trial won’t be on TV.

T: Make them put it on TV. The rules don’t apply to me. I’m the f— PRESIDENT, for God’s sake!

A: I’ll try, but it probably won’t work. Next, the judge won’t let you pontificate on the stand. He’ll shut you down.

T: Again, it’s your job to keep him under control. I have a First Amendment right to say whatever I want. Plus, I’m Donald Trump. The rules don’t apply to me.

A: Based on what has happened so far, you really need to be on your best behavior, because you need to look like a victim to the jury.

T: I’m good at playing a victim. And I have some ideas about who should be on the jury.

A: I’m listening.

T: We need as many small business owners as possible. Guys who hustle for a living. They know how tough it is out there. They do whatever they have to do to get by. Those people love me.

A: That makes sense. What else?

T: The poorly educated. They love me, and I love them.

A: I can’t imagine why. I’ll keep it in mind. The last thing is, I’m going to do my best to keep you off the stand.

T: WHY? IT’S MY PLATFORM! IT’S HOW I RUN FOR PRESIDENT!

A: Because you’re the guy who told 30,000 lies while in office. If you testify, you may be asked about every one of them.

T: That’s from that prick Jeff Bezos. He’s the liar. HE’S THE LIAR!

A: If we manage to destroy Cohen, and I’ll do my best, we may be able to keep you off the stand. That would be best for everyone. But we may need to put you on. If we do, you’re going to have to keep control of yourself. Looking like an angry maniac won’t help the cause.

T: I’ll just be me. It’s always worked before. It always will. I’m here for a purpose, you know. Little people can’t touch me.

A: That’s enough for today.

Many, but not all, of the Founding Fathers owned slaves. It was a system they inherited from their parents and grandparents; they didn’t create it. They were, to a man, uncomfortable with slavery, but they considered it essential to their economic survival. Given the difficulties of making a profit as a plantation owner in the late 18th and early 19th centuries–most of them died heavily in debt–they might well have been right.

Nevertheless, they stand condemned for their hypocrisy and inhumanity by today’s progressives. But judge not lest ye be judged, folks; we have been knowingly poisoning the environment for at least 30 years now, but how many progressives have been willing to give up their quality of life to go carbon neutral immediately for the benefit of future generations? What will our successors say about the greed and selfishness of our fearless crusaders for justice a hundred years from now?

Save your money on statues, because at some point, our grandchildren will be pulling them down. That’s the way the world works.

There are essentially three wildly different opinions on the Gaza war among Americans. The right completely identifies with Israel, thinks the Palestinian population as a whole is responsible for October 7, and demands unqualified support for the war, regardless of the civilian death toll. The left identifies with the Palestinians, thinks the Israelis are an evil occupying force, and demands a cease-fire, presumably with Hamas remaining in control of Gaza. The center wants a hostage release, an Israeli victory over Hamas, safety for the civilians, and progress on a Palestinian state. The centrists have supported Biden for the most part, but want to see concrete progress on their agenda; otherwise, they are prepared to support conditions on American aid.

Biden has no realistic hope of converting either the left or the right. He is under pressure to show that his insider approach can actually produce visible and meaningful results with the Israeli government. If Bibi doesn’t start listening to him, expect him to exert additional pressure in public, because to continue to defer to a government largely run by right-wing extremists without actually embracing their goals is to forfeit all of his remaining support on the issue.

Here is the list of the most important wedge issues facing Biden and the Democrats, along with their likely responses:

1. GAZA: The left wants a much harder line on Israel. Biden needs their votes, but he needs the support of liberal Jews, as well. THE RESPONSE: Biden is already moving to accommodate the progressives, although only part of that is motivated by domestic political concerns. For once, Trump is helping himself by staying quiet on this issue, but it is unlikely he will be able to maintain discipline as the campaign goes on.
2. CRIME: Local news programs consist almost entirely of crime stories. The public is consequently convinced that crime is soaring, particularly in urban hellholes, and that Biden is at fault. THE RESPONSE: The crime wave began under Trump, but has receded since. In any event, the president is not Batman; crime is almost exclusively a local issue.
3. THE BORDER: Abbott’s busing program has resulted in major financial impacts in blue cities, which has made immigration a wedge issue for the blue team for the first time. THE RESPONSE: Blame the GOP for opportunistically blocking legislation that would have helped resolve the problem.
4. TRANS RIGHTS: Many left-leaning voters are troubled by the more extreme claims made by trans advocates. THE RESPONSE: Support the rights of trans people to avoid discrimination and oppression but reject their claims to be “normal.” In any event, this is not really a federal issue, and it won’t motivate millions of people to cross over and vote for Trump.

Here is the list of the most dangerous wedge issues for Trump and the Republicans, along with their likely responses:

1. TRUMP AND HIS LEGAL TROUBLES: Polls consistently show that between 10 and 20 percent of normal Republican voters won’t vote for Trump in November. January 6, the impeachments, Stormygate, and the like are the principal reason for this. THE RESPONSE: Since Trump has become, if anything, even more militant about the “rigged” election, the only possibility is false equivalence. Biden is corrupt, too! Look at Hunter!
2. ABORTION: The midterms are a cautionary tale here; plenty of moderate GOP members, particularly women, will cross over to protect their rights. THE RESPONSE: Ambiguity. Float trial balloons and walk away. Support federal legislation at times, but not others. Just don’t get pinned down to a position that will cost votes and divide the party.
3. UKRAINE: Putin is hardly universally popular among GOP voters. THE RESPONSE: More ambiguity. Blame Biden for the war and promise to end it quickly without saying how, although we already know the answer to that one.
4. GUNS: The GOP consistently supports its base over the wishes of the vast majority of Americans on this issue. That won’t change between now and November. THE RESPONSE: Pretend the problem really revolves around mental health issues, but do nothing to resolve them.

The vast majority of Americans will make their choice in November based on identity and cultural issues. Most of the remainder will decide based on their perceptions of the state of the economy. Does that mean the rest of the issues just don’t matter?

In a close election, no. Wedge issues–the kind that cause some voters who would normally support one party to split a ticket, or to change sides–can be decisive in swing states and districts. As a result, they deserve considerable attention.

My next two posts will consequently address wedge issues first from the GOP perspective, and then the Democrats. In each case, I will be identifying the issues that are of concern and how the party in question will try to paper over them.

As I noted in my previous post, the Israeli government’s indifference to suffering in Gaza is an effort to split the difference between either ethnic cleansing or genocide (favored by the extreme right cabinet members) and the counterinsurgency strategy supported by the American government. If this continues, Israel will be forced to pick up the entire bill for occupying and rebuilding Gaza. It will also be making certain that Joe Biden is the last pro-Israel Democratic president in my lifetime.

These are terrible problems, but Bibi probably doesn’t care, because splitting the difference is keeping him in power in the short run. Putting his political survival ahead of the national interest will have the impact described in the old Fram oil filter commercial–pay me a little more, or a lot later.

There are two different ways for an Israeli to view the war in Gaza. If you think Hamas is the enemy, but not the population as a whole, you want to separate the fighters from the civilians and keep the latter group as safe as possible. If you have concluded that the entire population of Gaza is at fault for October 7, however, it makes perfect sense to kill as many Palestinians as possible; there is effectively no distinction between militants and civilians.

The Israeli cabinet clearly includes representatives of both groups. As a result, the Israeli military is splitting the difference. It is not engaged in genocide–it is making some grudging efforts to protect the population–but it is only doing the minimum required by the rest of the world to take care of the civilians instead of embracing the idea of separating them from the fighters.

It is the classic Bibi move–show the Israeli public that you are the indispensable man by standing up to the rest of the world while maintaining a leash on the absolute worst impulses of the far right. It keeps him in power, but results in incoherent policy and stores up future problems for his successors.

We know that Trump will claim that the upcoming election is “rigged” against him, because that’s what he always does. But with the end of special pandemic voting rules and the adoption of plenty of new restrictive state election laws, this argument will make less sense. How, then, will he say the “rigging” is taking place?

Trump and his followers will insist that local election officials in large cities are throwing his ballots into creeks and bringing fake Biden ballots to polling places in suitcases. What they really mean by this is that black Americans in urban areas aren’t real Americans, so they shouldn’t be allowed to vote. The allegedly corrupt urban polling place is a dog whistle for an unsavory morsel of racist ideology.

The Israeli Army’s chief of staff apparently noted this morning that Israel was at war with Hamas, not the people of Gaza. He is exactly right; Hamas didn’t mobilize the people of Gaza for war, it hid underneath them. That’s the reason, as I have noted previously, that the World War II analogy used by some Israelis doesn’t apply here.

But the war Israel is actually fighting doesn’t match the guy’s words. The Israelis are making little effort to separate the fighters from the civilian population. Instead of enthusiastically protecting civilians in an effort to isolate the militants, they do as little as possible to meet the needs of non-combatants and complain bitterly when the rest of the world prods them to do so.

Will this latest mistake cause the government to change course? Don’t hold your breath, because there are several members of the Israeli cabinet who view the enemy as the entire Palestinian population, not just Hamas, and Bibi needs their votes to stay in power.

A right to privacy was added to the Florida Constitution in 1980 by popular vote. As a result of the decision in Roe, it was commonly understood that the concept of privacy included abortion at the time of the vote. In light of that, and the reasoning in Roe, the Florida Supreme Court found that the Florida Constitution provided protections for abortion above and beyond what could be found in the US Constitution and case law.

But a new Florida Supreme Court, packed with DeSantis supporters, decided that all of the evidence of the public’s understanding of the amendment was unconvincing and overturned the previous decision on Monday. It was an unscrupulous act of raw judicial power. Thomas and Scalia would be proud.

The Florida court probably thinks it immunized itself from criticism by permitting, by the narrowest of margins, the 2024 ballot referendum on abortion rights to go forward. In the press, yes; in my eyes, no.

Bibi uncharacteristically apologized for the deaths of aid workers at the hands of Israeli soldiers, but he also added, “It happens.” He’s right; soldiers rarely have perfect information, and they’re bound to make mistakes at times. But it is far more likely that they will kill innocent aid workers if your country’s leadership openly puts a much higher priority on killing terrorists than on providing food for desperate civilians. This was bound to happen sooner or later.

At some point, if only for his own political survival, Biden is going to have to make it clear in public that America will no longer provide weapons or diplomatic support if the Israelis continue to ignore our advice. Could this episode be the turning point? It’s possible; even the Israelis acknowledge they were in the wrong this time.

We, the real people of America, in order to destroy wokeness, promote the interest of white Christians, encourage the use of fossil fuels, suck up to foreign dictators, and eliminate expertise in our government, do hereby appoint Donald J. Trump as the ruler of our country, with unlimited and perpetual power to do whatever he pleases.

I hold these truths to be self-evident: that all real Americans are created equal, except me; that I was appointed by God, if there is anyone greater than me, to rule over America; that it is therefore the obligation of all true Americans to suck up to me; and that the purpose of government is to give me unlimited power to abuse and make miserable anyone claiming to be an American who doesn’t fall into line.

Beyonce doesn’t make albums; she makes statements. She doesn’t try to persuade you; she demands your allegiance. She can do that, too. She has an internet army to back her up.

And so, the question was whether she could make the country music establishment bend the knee to her by releasing a record with several country songs. So far, the answer is no. While her record, as usual, has been received ecstatically by her fans and the critics, country radio won’t play it.

But this should be fun, if you’re a member of the blue team. First of all, some hapless country music establishment figure is bound to put his foot in it, and the Beyhive will respond with all of its fury. There are times when it feels like only the red team is fighting the culture war, so this will provide some reassurance to the rest of us. In addition, it would be amusing to see Beyonce, Jay-Z, and family performing at the Grand Old Opry as the Carter Family.