The Diminishing Returns of Debt Ceiling Chicken

Another debt ceiling crisis looms.  Everything depends on Speaker-to-be Ryan’s willingness to invoke the Boehner Rule and rely on Democratic votes to get it done.  I’m hoping this time will be less stressful, however, for the following reasons:

  1.  Seen it, done it, been there.
  2.  The election is now slightly over a year away.  Debt ceiling crises hurt the GOP brand with centrist voters and cost their PBP constituents lots of money.  Surely even the nihilists can hold off for a year in light of the big picture.
  3.  The GOP candidates for President are all proposing enormous tax cuts that will blow up the deficit and require massive debt ceiling increases.  We know that most of the Republican white noise on the deficit is just hypocrisy and opportunism, but it is going to be awkward for the Reactionaries to bang on about the deficit in 2015 and then completely disregard it when the Rubio or Cruz Administration asks for a debt ceiling increase in 2017.

A Limerick on Xi’s UK Visit

The great would-be emperor Xi

In the UK was met graciously.

He drank with the Queen

Though absurd it may seem

As a red prince it came naturally.

 

The imperial DNA in the Chinese government becomes conspicuous every now and then.

On the Sanders “Revolution”

Bernie Sanders understands very well that he cannot win the Democratic nomination, let alone get elected and accomplish his legislative objectives, without a tidal wave of support from people who have never seen fit to participate in politics before.  Is that a realistic possibility?

I don’t think so.  The only scenario in which I can see such a thing happening requires the convergence of a young, charismatic candidate and a huge national crisis.  Under different circumstances, that could have been Obama in 2008.  It certainly isn’t Sanders at a time when unemployment is at 5%.

A Post-Benghazi Limerick

There once was a woman named Hill.

She answered the questions until

The chairman got tired.

He should have been fired.

The public long since had its fill.

Shakespeare’s Take on Jeb and Marco

Jeb Bush is standing on the terrace of an expensive condo in Miami.  He looks pensive.  He speaks.

Jeb:  Rubio, Rubio, wherefore art thou, Rubio?

Marco approaches in the square below and responds.

Marco:  Here, my former liege.

Jeb:  Why hast thou betrayed me, Rubio?

Marco:  Thou gaveth me a sword.  Didst thou not expect me to use it?

Jeb:  On the Democrats, Rubio, the Democrats.

Marco:  The time hath come for a new band of leaders.  Thou art too old.  Thy energy is waning.

Jeb:  Long life is a good thing.

Marco:  And thy brother is an albatross.  Thou claimeth to be thy own man, yet thou useth his advisors.  It looks bad.

Jeb:  My brother is a problem, I’ll grant you.  But thou stoleth my donors!  My friends!

Marco:  Politics are not for the overly scrupulous, or the faint of heart.

Jeb:  Thou wouldst have been my successor.  I would have given thee my blessing in 2024.

Marco:  The time is now.  I leave for Iowa.  He leaves.

Jeb:  Fool I was to be his friend.

I’ll fight him to the bitter end.

He goes back in the condo and turns on the A/C.

 

On Reactionaries, PBPs, and an Old Line About Women

“Can’t live with them; can’t live without them” encapsulates the relationship between the PBPs and the Reactionaries.  From the PBP side, Reactionary votes are necessary to win power, but Reactionary excesses damage the GOP brand and make victory in presidential elections much less likely.  From the Reactionary perspective, the alliance with the PBPs wins elections, but only results in frustration afterwards.

Reactionaries in the House are already operating as a de facto third party.  The question now is what actions, if any, would cause them to formalize that arrangement.  I plan to discuss that in a future post.

Is Fiorina a PBP or a Reactionary?

Everything about Fiorina’s background suggests that she is a PBP.  However, her passionate prattling about abortion was her most memorable moment (other than her interactions with Trump) at the last debate, which means we don’t have a definitive answer at this point.

I would hope that the candidates will be asked a question about the debt ceiling and government shutdowns at the next debate.  That will be the acid test.  Anyone who is even willing to consider refusing to lift the debt limit is a Reactionary.   What will Fiorina say?  My guess is that she will out herself as a PBP, and her support on the far right will collapse as a result.

Cutting the Grass in Jerusalem

Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear, most recently during the Israeli election, that negotiations with the Palestinians are a waste of time for the foreseeable future.  He believes, instead, in conflict management.  As this approach has been applied in Gaza, it is commonly referred to as “cutting the grass.”

(As an aside, it was his objective to coerce the US to launch periodic air strikes in Iran–i.e., to “cut the grass”– for him.  Obama refused to be his lawn guy.  No wonder he was so pissed off.)

In the short term, you would have to say that the Israeli government’s tactics (build the wall, change facts on the ground through settlements, and make the minimum diplomatic efforts necessary to satisfy the outside world) have been reasonably successful.  Gaza is a flea bite, and the West Bank has been largely quiet for several years, mostly because the PA has been willing to act as Israel’s policeman in exchange for the illusion of power and a negotiated two-state solution.  No progress has been made on the latter for several years.  The question is, how long can this last?

In the longer term, Israel has three points of vulnerability:

  1.  Hezbollah is a far greater military threat than Hamas.  Fortunately for the Israelis, it is primarily engaged in fighting in Syria at the present time.  The Syrian civil war presented an opportunity for Israel to force Hezbollah to fight on two fronts, but the government has chosen not to do that.  At some point, the civil war will end, and the danger will return.
  2. The possibility of an incident in the Old City that inflames passions throughout the Islamic world grows by the day.  The PA is apparently using social media to spread rumors about the government’s plans because every other available lever to force the government to the table has failed.  Netanyahu is probably telling the truth when he says that the government has no intention of changing the status quo, but his credibility on the issue is compromised by the views of some of his radical right friends.
  3. Israel’s millions of Arab citizens are a huge potential threat if the government insists on marginalizing them.  Unlike the West Bank, that problem cannot be solved with a wall.  In the absence of a negotiated solution, what are the government’s options?  Collective punishment?  Mass expulsions?

The bottom line is that “cutting the grass” isn’t going to work forever.  Calling everyone who disagrees with you a Nazi doesn’t accomplish much, either.

 

Arab is the New Nazi

When you offend your hosts by suggesting that someone else is guilty of a crime to which they have already admitted, it is time to STFU.

Lines on Benghazi

The ideal thing would be to create a parody of “Volare,” but I can’t write in Italian, so this will have to do:

I was posted in Benghazi

When the uprising went down.

You could see the trouble brewing.

There was anarchy in town.

 

Armed gangs were approaching

The embassy that day.

We tried to call for help, but

All help was far away.

 

They blew up everything they could

And left the place a ruin.

We did our best to stop them, but

It was nothing doing.

 

I’d like to think that all my friends

Didn’t die in vain.

But the squabbling that ensued

Deserves only disdain.

 

Investigate, for all you’re worth

The failures that took place.

But don’t forget our tragedy

Still has a human face.

 

Election time is drawing near.

A reckoning’s at hand.

But please think twice before you draw

New lines in the sand.