Cromwell

Fast forward to October.  Mueller has released his report, and while it doesn’t contain a smoking gun, it certainly doesn’t look good for Trump, whose approval ratings are at a new low.  Democratic control of the House, at least, seems to be assured.

With that as background, Trump attacks Iran without any kind of authorization from Congress.  He subsequently wraps himself in the flag and demands that the country unite around him and the war.

Every day, every hour, nearly every minute, the message from Fox News is:

If you don’t support Trump and the war, you’re a traitor.  If you don’t support Trump and the war, you’re a traitor.  If you don’t support Trump and the war, you’re a traitor.

Would our system, as we know it, survive this experience?  I honestly don’t know.

The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia didn’t qualify for the World Cup, so for whom will Trump be rooting?  My guess is Brazil, because:

1.  It has a trade deficit with the US;
2.  We don’t pay anything to protect it;
3.  It has a right-wing government beset by legal problems (he can relate);
4.  It throws great parties;
5.  It’s not a “s—-” country; and
6.  Their team is the favorite.  Trump doesn’t root for losers.

The obvious alternative is Russia, but we’re not going there.

We are told on a daily basis that the Democratic Party is a group of smug, self-satisfied, wealthy coastal elites who have lost touch with the aspirations of real American workers in the heartland.  What is the basis for that opinion?

Well, it isn’t the utterances of the leaders of the party.  With a few exceptions, most notably Obama’s “bitter” speech and Clinton’s reference to the “basket of deplorables,” you never hear Democratic politicians bash red America.  It has to be coming from somewhere else.

It is.  Part of it is a cynical calculation by GOP candidates and Fox News that continually reminding red Americans how disrespected they are will result in ratings and votes.  Part of it, however, is just the daily operation of the MSM.  You see it during all of the awards shows.  You see it in sitcoms that focus on the condition of ethnic and cultural minorities in America.  Sometimes, you even see it on the national news.

How can the Democrats deal with this problem?  There is no easy answer.  Mostly, you just have to control your own message through campaign commercials and social media and hope for the best.

If the Democrats are to win a decisive victory in 2018, they are going to have to pick off a large number of votes from people who voted for Trump in 2016.  Here is how it lays out relative to the GOP factions:

1.  CDs:  Given Trump’s record, they should be easy pickings.  Just try to avoid sounding too enthusiastic about abortion.
2.  CLs:  Don’t bother.  Your view of the role of government is too different from theirs to make it work.
3.  PBPs:  Talk about the irrationality and danger of Trump’s trade wars and promise to keep his incompetence and corruption in check.  Don’t advocate a complete rollback of the tax cut.
4.  Reactionaries:  Make your sympathy for traditional rural values clear.  Advocate true populism and denounce Trump’s faux brand as a sellout to Wall Street.

There is an obvious tension between #3 and #4;  you will have to choose one or the other.  Your decision will be dictated by the makeup of the electorate in your district.

 

David Brooks calls himself a “Whig.”  By that, he means that he believes in incremental change driven largely by local actors and the free market, and in targeted federal investment to boost the economy and address social issues.  In my parlance, even though he’s Jewish, he’s a CD.

Brooks is in despair about politics at a national level, and with reason.  His beloved GOP has been exposed by Trump as a white nationalist party with a “starve the beast” tax cutting economic program.  The Democrats are clearly moving left.  What’s a poor Whig to do?

The dilemma is real.  But what Brooks doesn’t seem to realize is that he had a president who agreed with him on incremental change and public investment just a few years ago.  Brooks was too loyal to the GOP to provide any meaningful support to the Obama agenda when it was on the table.  Now he’s paying the price for it, and he has nowhere to go.

Like his father and grandfather (and Putin), Kim loves being unpredictable.  There are three reasons for this.  First of all, the element of surprise is obviously a strategic advantage.  Second, it makes him the focus of attention, and boosts his ego.  Third, the use of arbitrary power makes it clear to everyone that you are the man, and that the only sure way to avoid your wrath is to provide unconditional loyalty.

Trump values unpredictability for all of the same reasons.  The difference is that Kim and Putin aren’t really accountable to anyone in their respective political systems, while Trump is the leader of what used to be called the “free world.”  He has different obligations to the public.  He just doesn’t acknowledge them; to him, being president of the United States is no different than being the CEO of his companies.

Is Kim bluffing with his threats to call off the summit?  Most likely, he is sending a message to Trump that both of them can be capricious, and trying to find out exactly how desperate Trump is for a “win.”

The most likely outcome is still that the summit will go forward and that Trump will give away the store, but let’s be honest–this could go anywhere.

By virtue of geography, Gaza can be fairly described as the world’s largest open-air prison.  It is contained completely by Israel.  The inmates have no hope of attaining freedom on their own, by force or otherwise.

It is in that light that you should view the demonstrations at the border.  The Israelis are undoubtedly using disproportionate force in response in order to send the message to the protesters that the rest of the world is focused on Iran and doesn’t care about them.  The Palestinians, for their part, are probably playing a longer game.  It is true that no one is going to help them in the short run, but the images that are being created today will be etched in the minds of the Arab world for a long time, and Israel is just an Islamist revolution in Egypt away from having a serious problem on its hands.

My wife and I are big fans of “Fear of a Black Hat,” a mockumentary about a fictional African-American hip-hop group called NWH (the “H” stands for “Hats.”)  NWH is a caricature; its members can be described as follows:

1.  They lie outrageously all the time;
2.  They exploit and demean women;
3.  They glorify violence;
4.  They love to bluster and talk trash;
5.  They have a huge chip on their shoulder; and
6.  They despise the establishment.

Wait a minute!  Doesn’t this sound vaguely familiar?

Perhaps, when Trump’s term is over, he can go out on the road and perform as an elderly white rapper.  He could use the stage name “Cheetos” or “Orange Julius.”

The British public seems to have embraced the biracial American.  That’s good.  In a post-Brexit world, it gives you some hope for the future.

Donald Trump is likely to get a very different reception when he visits the UK in a few months.  That’s good, too.

If I have any readers in the UK, don’t let me down–go out and demonstrate!

Trump is sitting in the famous boardroom in Trump Tower with Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, Theresa May, and Kim Jong-un.  He’s wearing his typical grumpy cat look.

TRUMP:  OK, you know the rules.  Each of you will be given an opportunity to explain what you’ve done for me over the last year.  Three of you will be fired.  One of you will be hired to do a special project for me.  Does everyone understand?

The group nods in agreement.

TRUMP:  Angela, we’ll start with you.  What have you done for me lately?

MERKEL:  Nothing specifically for you, but I’ve done my best to uphold liberal democratic values and the rule of law.  America ultimately benefits from that.

TRUMP:  That’s disgusting!  You’re fired!  Get out of here and never come back!  Merkel exits.

TRUMP:  What about you, Macron?

MACRON:  I invited you to our big national parade.  It gave you the idea for your own parade.  And we helped out with the military strike in Syria.

TRUMP:  That’s good, but not enough.  You’re fired.  Macron leaves.

TRUMP:  Now we’re down the the last two.  Theresa, what have you done for me?

MAY:  We invited you to meet the Queen.  I suck up to you in the face of violent opposition at home.  I even made Boris Johnson suck up to you and go on Fox News.

TRUMP:  Interesting, but you didn’t let me ride in a parade in one of those golden carriages.  What about you, Kim?

KIM:  First of all, I just need to tell you what an honor it is to sit in a chair that might have been used by Dennis Rodman.

TRUMP:  Yeah, I kind of miss Dennis.

KIM:  You should give him a job in your government.

TRUMP:  Come to think of it, maybe I should hire him to be my new VA head.  But back to business–what have you done for me?

KIM:  I gave you an opportunity to talk trash on a global scale.  You may even win a Nobel Peace Prize because of me.

TRUMP:  This is a tough one, but . . . Kim, you’re hired!  May leaves the boardroom; Kim exults.

KIM:  So what’s the project?

TRUMP:  Japan and South Korea have huge trade surpluses with us.  I want you to blow them away.

KIM:  I’m on it.  They leave together.

The US and the EU commonly impose economic sanctions on wrongdoers and their associates for the purpose of encouraging compliance with international norms.  Russian oligarchs close to Putin, for example, have been targeted in this fashion.

If the EU wants to get tough with Trump, why don’t they impose sanctions on him, his family, and his businesses for reneging on the Paris Agreement and the Iran deal and for violating WTO rules?  They could refuse entry to him, freeze his assets, and take his golf courses and hotels into receivership until he cleans up his act.

Wouldn’t that piss him off?

Wouldn’t that be great?

Yes, my muse is in overdrive today.  Wait until you see what I have prepared for the next few days!

The NSC leader named John

Wants Iran’s current government gone.

He’s dreaming of war

Though exactly what for

Is a mystery to both him and Don.

The great would-be emperor Xi.

He doesn’t think trade should be free.

He’ll subsidize tech.

Make the system a wreck.

To bring the US to its knees.

On the newbie dictator named Kim.

He’ll kill people just on a whim.

No problem with Trump.

Liberals make him a grump.

But strong men are ok with him.

If there was ever any doubt, it should be gone by now–Donald Trump has fired the EU.  The same demeaning ritual has been repeated over and over again:  Trump announces his plan to change American policy; the Europeans troop to his office, suck up to him, and beg him to change his mind; and he ignores them.  Disbelief is turning to anger.  Something must be done to show Trump that life doesn’t imitate “The Apprentice,” and he is not the boss of the EU.

But what?  The EU can remain consistent with its rules-based approach to problems and call on the assistance of the WTO, but that takes years.  Blowing up NATO and jacking up defense budgets won’t be welcomed by EU taxpayers.  The emerging illiberal democracies in the EU don’t really agree with the rules-based approach, anyway.  Another way has to be found.

There is one:  protectionism.  Historically, the EU has been far more protectionist than the US.  Today, with the shoe on the other foot, I suspect it would be relatively easy to unite the continent on the basis of sanctions against the US.  These could be removed once the US returns to its senses, which will probably happen sometime around January 20, 2021.