Cromwell

In the end, it doesn’t make much difference whether the nominee is a realo or a fundi; the only meaningful legislation that will get through the system will be a rollback of the Trump tax cut and some corresponding new spending, and even that will only happen if the Democrats take back the Senate. Don’t bet the ranch on it.

Having said that, a fundi president will probably blame moderate Democrats for his/her inability to bring about the revolution, thereby sparking an intraparty civil war. In addition, a President Sanders would let loose all sorts of evil forces throughout the world as a result of his unwillingness to do anything other than talk in any circumstances. Bernie is consequently the worst of the available Democratic options.

By contrast, a second term for Trump will let loose the beast to an even greater extent than we see today. Together with his sidekicks, Bolton and Barr, there is no end to the damage he could do, both domestically and abroad. Even Bernie would be better than that.

Bernie Sanders promises us a revolution. Can he deliver? Here are my predictions:

1. POLITICAL CLIMATE: As with Warren, the revolutionary agenda runs into a wall of resistance from moderate Democrats and Republicans. Most of his legislation doesn’t even get through the House, let alone the Senate. He blames the moderate Democrats, and the party splits. In the meantime, the GOP resorts to the same Obama-era terror tactics with which we are only too familiar on government shutdowns and debt ceiling increases. Government turns into a series of daily crises.
2. TAXING AND SPENDING: As with the others, Sanders uses reconciliation to roll back the Trump tax cuts. The extra money is used for a variety of social programs. Medicare-for-All, however, does not even survive the House.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE: Sanders is tempted to sell out the GND in favor of more social spending, but it doesn’t happen.
4. IMMIGRATION: The Sanders program ultimately looks like a more humane version of Trump’s, as he has long since concluded that open borders only help the Koch brothers. No comprehensive reform package is in sight.
5. FOREIGN POLICY: This is where Sanders really stands out, and in a bad way. His foreign policy is the other side of the coin from Trump’s; he blusters constantly about progressive values and human rights, but refuses to bring a stick to the party. As a result, bad guys run wild throughout the world, and our allies learn to ignore us and act on their own.

That’s a revolution, all right.

Those Obama bugs and cameras are still working! Here’s what really happened when Trump and Melania met Prince Charles and Camilla:

(Trump and Melania enter Buckingham Palace, where Charles and Camilla are waiting for them)

T: What’s up, Chuck!

C: Welcome to Buckingham Palace, Mr. President.

T: I hate to admit it, but this place is bigger than the White House. I need to talk to my budget people about that. It’s smaller than Trump Tower, though, and it has less gold.

C: Come on in, and have some tea.

T: I don’t drink tea, and I don’t eat those fussy sandwiches. I could use a Diet Coke, though.

(A servant brings him a can of Diet Coke. Trump opens it and starts guzzling it straight from the can. Unfortunately for him, he’s in the UK, so it’s warm.)

C: Did you sleep well, Mr. President?

T: Not at all! The problem with London is that there are no Trump hotels. I can’t sleep in that stupid embassy! The demonstrators don’t help, either.

C: You don’t like London?

T: No. It has too many old musty buildings, and not enough skyscrapers. You need to build more skyscrapers in the middle of downtown. I kind of like that new area, though.

C: Docklands?

T: Yeah, I guess that’s what it’s called. That’s more like a real American city.

C: You haven’t read my writings on architecture, have you?

T: I don’t have time to read anything except bullet points and sports stories.

C: Well, at least you got the best of our British weather.

T: Yeah, but it’s too cold for me. We need some of that good old global warming. My experts say it’s a Chinese hoax, you know.

C: Well, I guess you need to leave and work on your Normandy speech.

T: Yeah, it’s about how I would have won the war single-handedly if I had been alive back then.

C: We’re done here.

(They leave)

So how would a Mayor Pete administration differ from Biden’s? Here’s how:

1. POLITICAL CLIMATE: Mayor Pete would split the GOP. Most reactionaries would go bananas over his sexual orientation; other prominent Republicans would be reluctantly impressed by his gravity, moderation, and sobriety. In the legislative field, it wouldn’t matter. McConnell will resort to his usual tricks, and they will work. There will be no political revolution, but the shutdowns and debt crises would be kept to a minimum.
2. TAXING AND SPENDING: The Trump tax cuts will be rolled back. Mayor Pete, unlike some of the other candidates, isn’t that big on detailed plans, so he would probably outsource some of the new spending programs to the leadership in Congress. Exactly what programs would be funded, I cannot say.
3. RUSSIA: Mayor Pete would pass the Putin’s dog test with aplomb. His attitude towards Russia would be similar to Obama’s.
4. IMMIGRATION: This doesn’t seem to be a high priority issue for Mayor Pete. Nothing important happens.

In short, it doesn’t differ very much, except that Mayor Pete would have a learning curve, and Biden wouldn’t.

August, 1940

President Donald Trump and German Fuhrer Adolf Hitler unveiled an agreement this morning which divides the British Empire in two. America will be entitled to all British possessions in the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific, and Southeast Asia; the Germans get the rest.

Trump indicated he had some regrets about making the deal, in that he had great respect for the royal family and British culture, but he added “The British are losers. They’ve lost the war. We have to move on and do what’s best for our country. America first!”

When asked about Hitler and his ambitions for the future, Trump said “Hitler has done some tough things. He’s very tough. Some people have been killed. Is he really responsible? Who knows? All I know is that it’s a tough world, and sometimes you have to do bad things to get ahead.” He also stated that America was getting the better of the deal, as would be expected from such a master negotiator, in that Germany would be stuck with “sh—hole” countries in Africa.

Trump further indicated that he was looking forward to “taking the oil” in Southeast Asia. American troops are being dispatched to take control of the new American colonies and start exploiting their resources. It is hoped that they won’t run into any Japanese resistance.

Donald Trump has no reverence for anyone but himself. He thinks public service, idealism, and foreign alliances are for suckers. He can’t imagine a world that existed before he was born. He believes he has compensated for his bone spur deferment by increasing the defense budget. He’s a chicken hawk, just like Bush and Cheney and so many other prominent members of the GOP.

The idea of him going to Normandy and speaking for World War II veterans and our country makes me sick. I wouldn’t be shocked if he somehow makes a speech praising himself and “America First,” because, after all, that’s what he does.

He shouldn’t be allowed within 100 miles of Omaha Beach.

A: A sharp critic of Trump during the 2016 campaign, he became a sycophant after the election in a mostly vain effort to maintain some influence over foreign policy.

Q: Who is Lindsey Graham?

This one is short and sweet. With the exception of funding baby bonds, I can’t see any meaningful difference in the real world between a Booker and a Biden administration. Both of them have a reasonable claim to be Obama’s true heir, both of them would try to improve the political climate with mixed success, both of them pass the Putin’s dog test, and both of them are establishment figures and realos.

For what it’s worth, both of them are acceptable to me. Whether the Democratic Party as a whole agrees with that remains to be seen.

Elizabeth Warren is determined to make sweeping changes to “rigged” America. Would she succeed? Here’s what would happen, relative to Biden and Harris:

1. POLITICAL CLIMATE: Warren’s ambitious plans crash into a coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats, and mostly go nowhere. The Senate refuses to eliminate the filibuster. The left blames the moderates, and the Democratic Party splits wide open.
2. TAXING AND SPENDING: The wealth tax doesn’t even pass the House, let alone survive a filibuster, as Democratic House members from swing districts oppose it. Warren has to settle for a tax bill rolling back the Trump tax cuts. The proceeds are spent on several of her proposed programs, including, but not limited to, reductions in student debt and day care.
3. RUSSIA: Warren passes the Putin’s dog test. She firmly opposes Russian efforts to split NATO.
4. MIDDLE EAST: Warren is tougher on Israel than Biden, but more accommodating than Harris. Her views on Iran and Saudi Arabia are not fundamentally different than Biden’s.
5. IMMIGRATION: Warren puts relatively little effort into this issue, as it interests her less than sticking it to the wealthy. In the end, it doesn’t matter; GOP obstruction dooms any effort to find a bipartisan solution, and her bill dies in the Senate.
   

An article in Politico asks why Kirsten Gillibrand’s campaign is polling so poorly. Since I never took her candidacy seriously, I’m happy to answer the question:

1. You can reduce the gist of her campaign to two words: men suck.
2. Obviously, the wisdom of writing off slightly less than half the electorate can be questioned, but it would make sense if the field consisted of nothing but men.
3. It doesn’t. She is running against no less than three women who are at least as well qualified as she is. Each of them has a more expansive world view than she does.
4. How can you win if you have nothing to offer men, and the female vote is already split?

The bottom line is that America wants someone who can stand up to Vladimir Putin, not Al Franken. Gillibrand’s candidacy won’t survive Iowa–if she even gets that far.

Make the same assumptions as yesterday, except that Harris, not Biden, wins the election. How does the real world outcome differ? Mostly, it doesn’t, but there are some exceptions:

1. POLITICAL CLIMATE: The right-wing outrage machine predictably goes bonkers over the election of a woman with color. For her part, Harris does not suffer fools and bigots gladly. As a result, Harris’ tenure is filled with attempts to shut down the government and block debt ceiling increases.
2. TAXING AND SPENDING: The Democratic tax bill, passed through reconciliation, puts more emphasis on funding the LIFT Act, and increases the deficit a bit more.
3. RUSSIA: Harris takes a harder line on Putin than Biden.
4. MIDDLE EAST: In a similar vein, while Biden would try to return the US to its traditional role as even-handed mediator, Harris is openly sympathetic to the Palestinians, and tougher on Netanyahu. American relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are even worse than they were under Obama.
5. IMMIGRATION: Harris pushes harder, and earlier, for comprehensive immigration reform, which nonetheless fails due to GOP obstruction in the Senate. She then takes administrative steps to protect illegal immigrants that are successfully challenged in court. Ultimately, her efforts are for naught.

There is an interesting and comprehensive article about Beto O’Rourke in the latest New Yorker magazine. Beto is portrayed sympathetically as an earnest, charismatic, genuinely humble figure who is searching for truth and is prepared to listen to anyone. A less Trump-like politician can hardly be imagined.

Beto would make a great choice as the head of the Peace Corps. As president of the most powerful nation on the planet–not so much. Beto doesn’t pass the Putin’s dog test. He isn’t tough and ruthless enough to deal with a world that frequently (Trump notwithstanding, not always) requires both qualities.

Joe Biden is essentially running for Obama’s third term. Assume that he gets it, and that the Democrats win a narrow majority in the Senate. What happens in the following four years?

Here is my best guess:

1. TONE OF POLITICS: Things improve to the point that there are no shutdowns or debt ceiling crises. McConnell goes into full obstruction mode on legislation, however, and the filibuster remains in place, so nothing much happens that can’t be approved through reconciliation.
2. TAXING AND SPENDING: The Democrats pass a tax increase that rolls back large parts of the Trump tax cut. They use the proceeds to fund an increase in the EITC, higher Obamacare subsidies, and additional money for green infrastructure.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE: The proposed carbon tax dies in the Senate. Biden returns us to the Paris Agreement and reinstates the Obama regulations.
4. CHINA: Biden ends the Trump trade war, but launches a new effort, with the assistance of the EU, to force changes in Chinese mercantilist behavior.
5. RUSSIA: Back to the Obama status quo.
6. RELATIONS WITH TRADITIONAL ALLIES: Back to the Obama status quo.
7. MIDDLE EAST: Biden offers to return to the Iran nuclear agreement and end sanctions in exchange for some additional safeguards. The EU joins in, and the Iranians accept the slightly revised deal.
8. IMMIGRATION: Reactionaries prevent McConnell from making a moderate deal on comprehensive reform, which remains elusive.

The big change, of course, is that the constant drama, the corruption, the racism, the mixed messages, the incompetence, the attempts to subvert the rule of law, and the authoritarianism of the Trump days is gone. That is what Biden supporters really want.

It is likely that the rollout of the Kushner peace plan will be postponed yet again in order to accommodate Bibi’s electoral interests. When the plan is unveiled, however, there is every reason to believe that it will emphasize investment opportunities over political solutions. In other words, it won’t be a “peace plan” in any meaningful sense of the term.

If you analogize the political aspects of the plan to Indian reservations, which I think is entirely appropriate, Kushner believes the Palestinians can be adequately compensated for their loss of land and rights by giving them the ability to build casinos on their reservations. You can see where that approach would appeal to Trump. Just don’t sell the plan to him by giving him a piece of the action–he’ll run the places into the ground.

Tonight, I would like to speak specifically to the white people of America about their dreams and fears for the future. Especially their fears.

There can be no doubt that white people are disproportionately responsible for the success of this nation. They were the first colonists–at least the first voluntary ones. They fought and died for their new country in the Revolution. They wrote the Declaration and the Constitution. They settled the country and developed it. Some of them fought and died to free the nation from slavery–a sacrifice we should never forget. They were primarily responsible for winning the world wars and the Cold War. The country owes them a huge debt of gratitude.

But white people are not the whole story of America. People of color shaped our nation in too many ways, and too profoundly, to describe in a short speech of this nature. Just to mention one thing, our music would be entirely different today, and far less popular, without the contributions of African-Americans. America without people of color would not be America–it would be something far less interesting, and an idea that is infinitely less powerful.

I’m here tonight to tell you that you have nothing to fear from me. I have nothing but respect for your culture and your contributions to this country. I’m also here to tell you, however, that you are not the default for the country. People of color, including me, are not interlopers; we have every bit as much right to be here and call ourselves Americans as you do. We will never have harmony and justice in this country until you accept that fact. It’s not too much to ask.

America is not a melting pot. Nor is it a piece of white paper only given some definition by colored lines. It’s a mosaic, and every color in it has its place. Including yours.

Thank you, and good night.