Cromwell

It would be fair to say that Trump lost to Obama, the president whose legacy he has tried so hard to obliterate. In addition, he put himself in a category with George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter by failing to win a second term.

JIMMY CARTER! God, he would hate that. He should be reminded of it at every turn.

Trump’s most recent public activities are not clearly inconsistent with the notion that he intends to use extraconstitutional means to remain in power even after losing the election. Given that he is spending most of his time playing golf, watching TV, and tweeting, however, it appears far more likely that he is throwing a tantrum without any deeper political meaning. If that is the case, the situation will ultimately resolve itself without any drastic action from the Biden camp.

That said, it would be a mistake to minimize the importance of what is happening now, and what has happened over the last four years. Trump has shown the world that he can trample on constitutional norms without any consequences, given the unconditional support of Republicans in Congress and the trusty base. He is currently doing everything he can to erode trust in our electoral system, which is a cornerstone of liberal democracy. That will be a lesson to any future Franco wannabe who is currently watching and waiting for his turn.

In short, this farce is just the dress rehearsal. The real battle with the forces of illiberalism has yet to be fought, much less won.

My name is Mark. I grew up in a small town in Indiana, close to the Illinois line. My dad was the local car dealer. He worked hard, and he built the dealership from next to nothing, but he was always there for us. We were comfortable, but never felt rich. We were just average people in an average town.

After I graduated from IU with a degree in business, I went back and worked for my dad. I did every job in the dealership, and learned everything there was to know about selling cars. When he retired, he turned the dealership over to me. I’ve been there ever since.

People don’t understand how difficult it is to sell cars, particularly in this environment. What, with the internet, and environmental issues, and a never ending list of regulations, you never know where you are from day to day. I work my butt off, and I earn everything I get. It pisses me off when people on the left call me “privileged;” they don’t understand how much my dad and I sacrificed to get where I am today.

Trump? He can be awfully embarrassing. Half the time, he has no idea what he’s talking about. Sometimes he just makes me cringe. My wife absolutely can’t stand him. But, after some struggle, I decided to vote for him, because he was good for my business and my investments, even with his stupid tariffs and big mouth. Voting for Biden was just too big a risk. He’s OK on his own, but what about Bernie and Warren and the rest of that crowd? They just can’t be trusted.

The outcome of the election was OK. We can rely on Mitch to keep the Democrats in line, and Biden seems like a reasonable, decent guy. I don’t like all of this stuff about overturning the results of the election. Instability is not our friend. It’s time to move on.

Although they may despise each other, Trump and the MSM are locked in a corrupt, destructive relationship. The MSM give Trump the attention he needs like oxygen, while Trump makes them money. Lots of money. And he knows it.

So what happens after he leaves office? Do the MSM continue to report on Trump’s tweets? And how does Biden respond, if they do?

I predict that Biden will establish a policy of refusing to comment on the tweets, regardless of how provocative they are, early on in his administration. The MSM will continue to report on them for a few months, but will ultimately lose interest when they don’t receive the desired response, and the outrage machine will shudder to a welcome halt.

It is generally assumed that McConnell will be every bit the obstructionist that he was in 2009 if the GOP wins one or both of the special elections in Georgia. Is that inevitable?

Not exactly, because the situations are somewhat different. In 2009, McConnell and the GOP had the luxury of irresponsibility, because the Democrats had an enormous majority in both houses. That will not be the case in 2021. Mitch will have to cooperate with the new administration and House Democrats to keep the lights on. He will also get some of the blame if things go wrong. Finally, two or three of his members are not completely reliable. He will consequently have to choose his battles with some care.

There is no likelihood of any significant expansion of the welfare state in the next two years if Mitch remains Majority Leader, as is likely, but don’t assume that it will be impossible to get anything at all done on issues like infrastructure. The picture is a little brighter than that.

Given the magnitude of the stakes involved, the state of public opinion, and the absurdity of the GOP’s position, climate change should have been a layup for the Democrats during the campaign. Instead, Biden went into a defensive crouch every time the issue came up during the debates. Most of the discussion was about how we’re not banning fracking and adopting the GND rather than about rising sea level, hurricanes, and wildfires. In fact, Biden’s comment about a transition away from fossil fuels was treated as a gaffe rather than the bland statement of common sense that it actually was.

In Biden’s case, you can sort of excuse this by reference to his correct belief that the election could come down to a handful of frackers in Pennsylvania. Candidates in down ballot races, however, have no similar excuse.

In this case, the left is right: the Democrats need to be far bolder and more emphatic in their presentation. If the planet is truly in danger–and it is–it isn’t enough to say so and then talk about all of the things you’re not doing to save it; you need to lay out a clear plan to actually do something, and fast.

There were two unequivocal losers of the 2020 election. One, of course, was Donald Trump; the other was the left wing of the Democratic Party, which was looking forward to a major expansion of the welfare state in 2021. Barring a surprise win by the Democrats in both Georgia special elections, that will not happen. So where does the left go from here?

You can be certain that they will put a huge emphasis on dictating regulatory personnel. The problem there is that the GOP Senate will have veto power over Biden’s appointments, and the Democrats can’t afford to give away any vulnerable Senate seats. Don’t expect the left to be satisfied with whatever remains.

The real danger is that the left, as usual, will view the moderate wing of the Democratic Party as the enemy instead of the GOP, and will take its frustrations to the street. If that happens, the GOP, which campaigned far more against rioters, looters, and political correctness than Biden, will be the ultimate winner.

Today, we recognize the contributions of those who set aside their daily lives to serve their country. What kind of country were they trying to protect? Was it a beacon of freedom and opportunity for people of all races, cultures, and creeds? Or was it a country run by and for straight white Christian men, with everyone else being an interloper and a potential threat to good order? In other words, who are the “people” in “We, the people?”

The ultimate answer to that question is up to us, not them.

It was rigged, and I can prove it. All you have to do is drive through my little town. Every other house has a Trump sign or flag. You won’t see any Biden/Harris signs. Not one! How can they possibly have won legally?

I know–you’re going to say that the Democrats won in the cities and suburbs. But those aren’t real Americans. They’re all rioting and looting and killing each other. They have no respect for our history, culture, and institutions. They’re animals, I tell you–animals!

Trump? I know he’s not perfect. I know he didn’t grow up in Alabama. I know he doesn’t love NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. He may not even love people like me who love NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. But I know one thing for sure: he really hates people who hate NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. That’s good enough for me.

Biden? I don’t have anything against him. He and his family have been through a lot. But he’s too old and feeble to keep the left-wing animals in his party under control. Fortunately, we still have Mitch to do that for us.

All I can say is, he better not try and come for my guns. If he does, I’m not responsible for what happens next.

Here’s where the factions stand on the outcome of the election:

1. CDs: Biden will at least try to pull a divided nation together. We’re good.
2. CLs: Two big government parties, in their different ways, checking each other. How’s that for irony! The Founding Fathers were geniuses!
3. PBPs: No tax increases, fewer tariffs, and an end to arbitrary interference with business. It’s not a perfect outcome, but it’s certainly OK. What we really hate is uncertainty. Let’s move on.
4. Reactionaries: FRAUD! THE ELECTION WAS RIGGED! THE GOVERNMENT IS ILLEGITIMATE! FIGHT ON TO THE END!

Of course, the only voice you actually hear right now is the last one, which shows you how the Reactionary faction has come to dominate the party. That is Trump’s greatest “accomplishment.”

There are three legal issues to be considered by the Supreme Court during oral argument today:

1. Have the plaintiffs alleged enough of a genuine injury tied to the now toothless individual mandate to establish standing to sue?
2. Is what remains of the individual mandate constitutional, in light of the previous (ridiculous) decision finding it valid only as a tax?
3. If the mandate is unconstitutional, would the intent of Congress be to sever it from the rest of the legislation, or should the entirety of ACA fall?

The simplest way of dealing with the case is to find that the plaintiffs lack standing, as the mandate is now meaningless; doing so would be an exercise of the judicial restraint so allegedly beloved by conservatives. If that is done, it becomes unnecessary to address the other issues. If the Court finds that the plaintiffs do, in fact, have standing, however, it is a foregone conclusion that the mandate will fall. The issue that will get the most attention, consequently, will be #3.

There is no doubt that the original framers of ACA thought that the individual mandate was one of the cornerstones of the legislation. There is also no doubt that the Congress that deleted the penalty for violating the mandate felt otherwise. The lower court in this case based its decision on the original legislative intent and blew off everything that happened after that. Even most right-wing legal commentators believe that was an obvious error.

As I noted in my last post, the GOP members of the Judiciary Committee have given the Court a permission slip to uphold ACA. I believe a clear majority, including Barrett, will do so. The legally principled and politically sensible way to do that would be to find a lack of standing and avoid the severability issue. Whether that will happen, I do not know; the unabashed GOP partisans on the Court are probably spoiling for a fight on the merits.

There was one big winner last week who didn’t appear on the ballot: John Roberts. Court packing is dead, the Biden Judicial Commission won’t accomplish anything without the leverage created by the packing option, and the Court will apparently be spared the trouble and notoriety involved in deciding a case that could throw the election to Trump. The Court’s legitimacy consequently survives, and the GOP appointees are free to do as they like. How will they respond?

Here are my predictions:

1. ABORTION: There is no possibility of a national ban on abortion for the next four years. That may embolden the majority to dispense with Roe altogether, although that remains to be seen.
2. ACA: Lindsey Graham and other GOP members of the Judiciary Committee have given them a permission slip not to kill ACA. I will discuss this further in my next post.
3. EXECUTIVE BRANCH ACCOUNTABILITY: Look for Thomas and Alito to make a U-turn on this issue now that their man is out of office.
4. CLAMPING DOWN ON ADMINISTRATIVE AGENCIES: We won’t see this for at least a year or two, but it will present a major problem for Biden down the road.

Hillary Clinton must have had a sense of deja vu. In 2016, the blue wall collapsed, albeit by very small margins. In 2020, under completely different circumstances, the wall survived–barely. With the exception of Georgia, Arizona, and the turnout, in spite of the pandemic, the recession, and the four years of Trump outrages, we were running basically the same election.

Would the result have been more impressive if Biden had run a more energetic and ideological campaign? The evidence available to us says no. Biden either ran even with, or outperformed, the Democratic candidates for the Senate in the swing states. The only exception was Montana, and nobody is going to suggest that running a more progressive campaign would have helped him there.

Choosing Biden blunted, to the maximum extent possible, the GOP’s efforts to run a campaign based on white identity interests and hatred of socialism. As it was, they still ran the same campaign, but directed it against AOC and the rioters, not Biden. The degree of success that they had should be, but probably won’t be, a stark message to the left.

I had a parody of Fleetwood Mac’s “Landslide” ready for posting on November 4, but I never had the chance to use it. In the end, the election looked a lot like 2016, with Trump’s record making up the difference. Why wasn’t the margin larger?

For these reasons:

1. THE ECONOMY ISN’T THAT BAD: The unemployment rate is now below 7 percent, and if you have a 401(k), it is doing very nicely, thank you. Millions of swing voters were undoubtedly influenced by this and didn’t want to risk making changes. I’m guessing these were the shy Trump voters whose views weren’t represented correctly in the polls.
2. TRUMP’S PARTISANS DIDN’T BLAME HIM FOR THE PANDEMIC: In truth, he can be blamed for a lot, but not everything. The states have more control over the issue than he does, and the Europeans are struggling, too. The pandemic probably decided the election on the margins, but it didn’t lead to an avalanche.
3. CULTURE AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE: As usual, the culture war prevailed over economic considerations. That might come as a surprise, given that the right acknowledges that it has lost the war in the eyes of the American public, but right-wing views still prevail in rural states with a disproportionate say in the outcome of an election. It is thus concurrently true that the red side has the unpopular side in the nation as a whole, and that whipping up cultural issues can be a winner for Republicans in red and purple states.

Could the Democrats have won a more convincing victory with a more ideological approach to the campaign? I will address that in my next post.

Life in the time of Trump.

The man on golf cart lost.

Authoritarians must go

No matter what the cost.

He’ll take the battle to the courts

To keep the wolves at bay.

But no relief is coming there.

I just don’t see a way.