Cromwell

William McKinley was dragged into a war over Cuba on false pretenses in 1898. McKinley is Trump’s role model; could he follow him on an unnecessary imperialist Cuba war as well as on tariffs?

There are a lot of unanswered questions about the speedboat episode at this point, but my best guess is that a group of exiles is trying to get ahead of Trump on this issue. We need an investigation by a genuinely independent fact-finder to determine the truth before any further action is taken. The problem here is that, while the Cuban regime’s account is plausible, no one in this country is going to accept it without further examination, and anyone in America who is tied to Trump or the exiles is going to have a clear agenda to escalate tensions.

Fortunately, Trump is busy with Iran right now. Even he can only fight one war at a time.

AI will benefit the elderly in two important ways: by increasing the value of their shares through productivity improvements and larger profits; and by creating new methods of care in response to labor shortages. For Gen Z, on the other hand, AI mostly offers an end to entry-level jobs.

The generational issue will be peripheral to the 2026 campaign, but it will figure prominently in 2028.

He ranted, exaggerated, and lied. He told immigrants and Democrats to get off his lawn. He wrapped himself in the flag. He set a new record for the longest SOTU in history. That was the end of the superlatives, unless boredom counts.

Yes, instead of justifying war with Iran or proposing any new measures to help Americans, Trump is doubling down. Don’t tell me you’re surprised.

Lindsey Graham is back in the Oval Office just before the SOTU.

G: So what can we expect from the speech this year?

T: The usual. It will be a list of all of my wins over the last year. It will be a long speech.

G: Are you sure that’s a good idea after you lost the tariff case?

T: I won the tariff case, Linseed. I always win, because I’m a winner. You forget that sometimes.

G: True. Remind me—how did you win the case?

T: The Court gave me lots of options for new tariffs. We’re already working on them.

G: What about the refunds?

T: Forget it. Not happening.

G: What are you going to say about the economy? The numbers look just like Biden’s in 2024.

T: Not even close. We have the greatest economy in history.

G: The numbers don’t support that.

T: You must be watching the fake news again. America is great again, and things will only get better. There will be an AI model with my name on it. It will change the game completely.

G: What about affordability? The Democrats are beating us upon that one.

T: More fake news. I’ve already solved it. And the big news is that the market’s way up. Investors love me. That’s what really matters.

G: Not to people who don’t own stock. What will you say about Iran? Are we going to war?

T: Maybe. We’ll see. You never know. (Graham leaves)

Do you think it is odd that Trump is contemplating war when the Iranians have done nothing to provoke him other than to kill their own people? Consider the other possible motivations for an attack:

1. Think I’m a loser after the tariff decision? Nothing says winner like the US military doing your bidding.

2. The politics of this are great—just like the Olympics. Most of the country rallies around me, and I get to call the rest traitors.

3. Those stupid Norwegians won’t give me a Nobel Peace Prize. In your face, guys!

4. It will be easy! Just like Venezuela. Trust me. Trust me.

Trump is apparently considering a sustained campaign of air strikes against Iran. If the objective of the campaign is to degrade the Iranian nuclear program, that contradicts his claim that the program was obliterated last year. If the point is to reduce the number of Iranian missiles, new ones can be built, so we would only be cutting the grass for the benefit of the Israelis. If the real objective is to facilitate regime change, there is no reason to believe that can be done purely from the air; in addition, since the regime has regained control of the streets, the attack will come too late. Finally, the American public wants no part of another war, and Trump has done nothing to prepare us for it.

What could go wrong?

Canada is a predominantly blue country. It only has three reliably red provinces. As a result, if Trump’s fantasy about incorporating it into the US ever became reality, the Democrats would be in a much stronger position to hold the House, and might even hold the balance of power in the Senate.

That would serve him right, no?

Thanks mostly to some outstanding goaltending, we won the gold medal hockey game over a clearly superior Canadian team. Trump will probably celebrate by talking trash on Lying Psycho and imposing new tariffs.

But look on the bright side, my Canadian friends; at least you still have a team. According to Trump, the Chinese will take the game away from you if you side with them against him.

While Gorsuch has his own peculiar agenda, it is fair to assume that Roberts and Barrett see Trump as a talented and well-meaning but petulant child who needs to be disciplined occasionally for his own good. Will Trump accept his loss with that spirit?

Of course not! He has already imposed new, temporary tariffs under a different statute and will try the national security route as a permanent fix. Look for him to do everything in his power to avoid giving refunds and to grossly misuse his national security authority, which will lead to more litigation and uncertainty, lower growth, and unnecessary trouble for the GOP.

The most important result of the decision is that it deprives Trump of his ability to use tariffs for purely personal and capricious reasons. Nothing says you’re the boss like the ability to tax people just because they did something to piss you off that morning.

Here are my initial reactions:

1. I described this case in a post months ago as being a battle between Trump and Reagan Republicans. Reagan won; that isn’t a triumph for the left.

2. The majority emphasized the number of Trump’s arbitrary interventions into the economy, which bodes well for future decisions.

3. It also showed some awareness of the dangers involved in the misuse of emergency powers, which is likely to be a theme for the next three years.

4. Most of the ink was spilled over the validity and meaning of the bogus “major questions” doctrine. This debate is going to continue into the future.

5. Gorsuch wants Congress to make itself great again, regardless of the obstacles. It can’t happen with the filibuster in place unless the country somehow becomes less rigidly partisan.

6. Kavanaugh is now an unequivocal Trumpist.

7. Thomas laid down a marker for the future by arguing that Congress is fully entitled to delegate most of its powers to the executive.

What does this decision mean for the future? For that, see my next post.

The Canadians hate us now. Canadian tourism is down dramatically. Surveys show that Canadians see America as a greater threat than China. Carney has already signed a limited free trade agreement with the Chinese. Should we expect more of this in the future?

Yes. At a minimum, it shows that two can play the leverage game. If Trump doesn’t like it, isn’t that the point?

Marco Rubio emphasized the cultural ties that unite America and Europe during his Munich speech. Does that mean he is going full Huntington on the clash of civilizations?

No, because to do so would be to acknowledge that Huntington put Russia at the center of a different civilization, which he called “Orthodox.” Trump wouldn’t like that, given his affinity for Putin.

At times, it appears that Trump is taking a harder line with our allies than with the Chinese. Why is that?

Because Trump believes everyone beyond our boundaries is trying to rip us off. The Chinese are powerful, so they can do it openly. That is more acceptable than pretending to be our friends.

I was offended when Gu competed for China in 2022. How could anyone who enjoyed the benefits of American liberty represent a country that spied on its citizens, menaced its neighbors, crushed dissent, and put people in concentration camps? It was inconceivable.

Now it is 2026, and Gu is still representing China. But has the rest of the equation changed at all? You decide.

While there are obvious differences of opinion among Trump’s closest advisers, Trump appears to be heading towards a spheres of influence deal with the Chinese. In some respects, this would resemble the world during the Cold War. Would such a world be more stable? Would it work better for America?

There would be issues. It is unlikely that either America or China would be willing to give up all of its interests in the other sphere. There would be ferocious competition for influence in the non-aligned areas, such as Europe and India. Finally, the boundaries of the spheres would be in dispute. Australia, for example, is aligned geographically with China, but culturally with America. Who would prevail there?

Not to mention the fact that many of the new vassal states would resist that status and struggle for independence. The logical outcome of this approach is the development of nuclear weapons in Europe, Japan, and South Korea.