Category: Uncategorized

It’s 1521. Martin Luther is at the Diet of Worms. In the face of all of the legal, political, and military might of the Holy Roman Empire, and the intellectual power of the Catholic Church, Luther stands on his conscience, and refuses to recant. Can you imagine the courage that would require? It boggles the mind.

As the German peasants will soon learn, to their cost, Luther is no liberal. Liberalism as we know it, however, could hardly exist without this moment.

Move forward to 1535. Sir Thomas More is on trial for his life for allegedly denying that Henry VIII is the head of the English church. Unlike Luther, More is no hick from the sticks, but one of the finest lawyers in the land; and yet, his task had to be terrifying. After being convicted–possibly on the basis of perjured testimony, but we will never know–More lets loose, and argues forcefully that he has a thousand years of history and tradition on his side, while his opponents have nothing of equal weight to balance the scales.

More is often portrayed as a prisoner of conscience, but that’s misleading, as he explicitly rejected the primacy of the individual conscience; he actually was a conservative, and died for his conservative views during a time of revolution.

The legacy of these two cases and men continues today. More is the clear inspiration for William Barr and Brett Kavanaugh and the CD faction of the Republican Party. Luther’s influence can be found throughout our political system, in the CL faction of the GOP, and in the Democratic Party. They will continue to do battle for the foreseeable future.

Happy Easter!

Trump says that the decision as to when to reopen America for business will be the toughest one he has faced. As I’ve noted before, it really isn’t up to him, but let’s run with it. His choices will be:

1. The option that grows the economy the fastest, regardless of the public health implications; or
2. An option that saves the most lives.

Which one will he pick, and what criterion will he use? You know the answer to that as well as I do: the one he thinks will get him re-elected. Nothing else matters to him.

So much winning! Trump was right; I’m already tired of it.

You can expect Trump to portray Biden as three different repulsive personas:

1. Sleepy Joe: The doddering old guy who probably can’t even remember how to make breakfast each day.

2. Creepy Joe: The creepy old guy with his hands all over you who tried to stop corruption fighters in Ukraine.

3. Wimpy Joe: The guy who doesn’t stand up to China, like our fearless hero.

Biden has decades of public service under his belt, and the public already knows him and his story, so this approach is unlikely to work. His job is to prove that he isn’t sleepy, creepy, or wimpy during the campaign. That shouldn’t be too hard.

Trump, on the other hand, condemns himself by his own mouth every day. This campaign is going to be a referendum on him and his record. If he can persuade a majority of the American people that he is the safe choice, in spite of everything, more power to him, and God help us all.

Bernie Sanders didn’t lose because he made tactical mistakes. He didn’t lose because he was soft on Biden, or because the establishment rigged the process against him. He had more money than his opponents, so that wasn’t it, either. He lost because of one word–socialism.

Socialism means different things to different parts of the electorate, but they are all negative. To relatively affluent Democrats, it means paying higher taxes and losing money on their investments. To the great mass of identity voters, it means that Sanders doesn’t accept their critique of society, and falsely blames all of the nation’s ills on greedy businessmen. To older voters, it means dealing with dramatic change at a time in their lives when they want peace and quiet. And to pragmatic voters, it is a label that leads to defeat in November. No one wants that.

The left thinks it has the support of working people in this country, but it doesn’t. All it has is younger voters with little to lose who stand to benefit financially from many of the expensive new programs that Sanders espouses. Until it comes up with a way to win over identity voters, instead of just complaining about “false consciousness,” it will never win national elections in this country. Dropping “socialism” would be a good first step.

On the 45th President Trump.

The market’s relinquished his bump.

He pouts and he preens

And constantly schemes

But nothing is slowing the slump.

For liberals, the purpose of government is to promote excellence by maximizing the ability of each individual to develop his unique talents. For the most part, this is done by limiting the role of the state to the resolution of competing claims among citizens; however, the state also has a positive role to play, by providing education to everyone, and resources to those who would otherwise be deprived of the opportunity to thrive. Liberals believe that God does not exist, or that it is impossible to develop a consensus as to the nature of his will, so attempting to design a society that would make him happy is futile. Excellence is measured by the prosperity of the country, the quality of its culture, and its strength and influence internationally.

For people like Adrian Vermeule and William Barr, the purpose of government is to promote virtue, as defined in commonly-accepted religious texts. The virtuous society is one that is pleasing to God, and promotes the spiritual health of its citizens. As a result of the Fall, men are foolish, weak, and disposed to sin; the point of government is to use its power to force them to be virtuous. They may object in the short run, but in the long run, it is for their own good, and they will thank you for it.

It hardly needs to be said that the latter perspective has its intellectual roots in medieval Christianity. You may have believed that those ideas died when the religious wars in Europe ended inconclusively, but if you did, you were wrong.

The irony, of course, is that Barr’s chosen instrument for creating a virtuous America is a man who violates most of the Ten Commandments every day, and probably doesn’t even know what they are. Oh, well. The Lord, as they say, works in mysterious ways.

Nikki Haley tells us in the NYT that the primary burden of dealing with a pandemic falls on the states, and that the federal government’s response has been, for the most part, appropriate. Is she right?

Not really. I’ve previously described the Trump administration’s actions as “bastard federalism.” Trump has refused to use the lawful powers he has in an emergency to create and distribute resources, sends mixed messages about the severity of the problem, demands fealty in exchange for assistance, rips the press and his critics instead of trying to unite the country in a crisis, and takes credit for any positive developments in the battle against the virus whether he is entitled to it or not. Responsibility flows down, and credit flows up. That’s not how the system is supposed to work.

How should it work? While the states are, as Haley asserts, the front lines in this war, only the federal government can be responsible for the following: controlling traffic in and out of the country; allocating existing national stockpiles of medical resources in a manner completely divorced from politics in order to avoid competition among the states; and compelling the production of essential medical goods wherever necessary. Trump has succeeded only in the first of these, and even his EU travel ban was clearly motivated more by spite than any principle.

(In honor of the Good Friday “Haleyday,” today’s posts will focus on Darling Nikki and the GOP)

Nikki Haley managed to survive about two years of the Trump administration without seriously damaging her reputation, which proves that she has some serious political skills. It will be a great surprise if she doesn’t run for president in 2024. Could she win?

No. The GOP is now driven by its reactionary wing, and Haley will never be acceptable to the far right, for two reasons. First, she’s a woman, which won’t fly with a large segment of the far right; and second, she plays ball to an unacceptable degree with the establishment. She will be the Marco Rubio or the Kamala Harris of the GOP in 2024; in trying to build bridges to both the far and the moderate right, she will satisfy neither.

Barring an unlikely Biden blowout win in November, the GOP nominee will be the Trumpiest member of the next generation: in all likelihood, Hawley or Cotton. Remember–you heard it here first.

William Barr has apparently expressed grave concern about the impacts of state stay-at-home orders on civil liberties. No, that is not a misprint.

What he really means is that responsible behavior during the pandemic will lead to an economic slump, and a potential Trump defeat in November. His record shows that what he really cares about is power, and imposing a social conservative agenda on an unwilling majority; protecting civil liberties for people other than “real Americans” is at the bottom of his list of priorities.

When FDR took office in 1933, the Great Depression had been going on for four years. There was never any chance he would take the blame for it. When Obama took office, however, the stock market crash was only a few months old, and most of the pain had yet to be felt. The GOP consequently succeeded, to some extent, in associating him with the Great Recession. You will probably hear some of that theme in Trump’s commercials in the upcoming campaign.

So what happens this time? If Biden wins, and the country recovers slowly over the next few years, will he get the credit for the improvement, or the blame for the initial problem? My guess is that the timing of the crash is more reminiscent of the Great Depression than the Great Recession; the image fixed in the public’s mind will be of Trump behaving erratically at daily briefings, not anything Biden might do subsequently. I could be wrong about that, however. We’ll see.

Let’s face it: Joe Biden is never going to win over the left, because, no matter what positions he takes, he will always be viewed as an incrementalist and an apologist for the Obama administration. He will need their votes, however. How can he get them to the polls?

Not by moving to the left, but by scaring the crap out of them about what happens in a second Trump term. Will you survive the virus when it returns with a corrupt and inept administration in charge? What happens to our political system when Trump and Barr are accountable to no one but themselves and the red base? Will we be at war with Iran or North Korea? Is holding out for socialism really worth those risks?

From his perspective, not mine, the decision to suspend the campaign was correct, because:

1. He couldn’t campaign in any meaningful sense due to the virus;

2. Under the circumstances, no one is interested in the campaign, anyway;

3. Wisconsin shows that a contested race will just put voters’ health at risk; and

4. His platform leverage consists of the loyalty of his supporters, not the number of delegates he amasses. Biden knows perfectly well that he needs the votes of the Bernie Bros in November, and so do we.

And so, when it was all said and done, in spite of the innumerable twists and turns in the campaign, my January prediction was right on target. Excuse me for a moment while I pat myself on the back and prepare for November.

Here is where the four factions would stand on “common good constitutionalism”:

1. CLs: The horror! The horror! This is almost as bad as socialism! America was built on individual rights and limited government–take your theocracy back to Europe and the 16th century!

2. PBPs: Ugh! We’re indifferent about the social conservatism, but the intense regulation of business and the wealthy for the benefit of workers–forget it!

3. Reactionaries: Most of this is fine with us, but it doesn’t recognize the difference between real Americans and everyone else. The absence of racism is a problem.

4. CDs: This is our agenda to the point that it goes way beyond our wildest dreams. We would love to see America turn into an updated version of the Holy Roman Empire, but is that at all realistic?

The essence of the devolution of a political system from a genuine liberal democratic state to an illiberal democracy is the erosion of effective independent checks and balances on the government. Thanks to the efforts of Trump and the GOP, where does America stack up today? Here is my analysis:

1. A POLITICIZED JUDICIARY: Check. This is the essence of the McConnell project. He intends to keep the GOP in power even if it loses elections, and it’s showing fruit. Another Trump term would probably do the trick.

2. A POLITICIZED SYSTEM OF LAW ENFORCEMENT: Bingo. Trump and Barr have taken clear steps in that direction in spite of a torrent of public criticism. Just imagine what they could do with a second term and an emergency!

3. THE REPLACEMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT CIVIL SERVICE WITH POLITICAL HACKS: What, you mean the deep state? It’s a tough nut to crack, but Trump is doing his best, and the Republicans in Congress are doing nothing to stop him.

4. AN ELECTORAL SYSTEM RIGGED IN FAVOR OF INCUMBENTS: The Senate and the Electoral College already give the GOP a built-in advantage. Throw in more effective methods of gerrymandering and voter suppression and a Supreme Court which tilts towards Republicans and you are teetering on the edge of a rigged system. One hopes that the disgrace in Wisconsin will provoke a backlash, but that remains to be seen.

5. THE DESTRUCTION OF INDEPENDENT MEDIA: Trump blasts the MSM on a daily basis and muses about changes to libel law, but nothing meaningful has happened here. Give him a second term and an unpopular war, and anything is possible.

My verdict: We are getting uncomfortably close to becoming an illiberal democracy. Another Trump victory and an emergency which justifies curtailing individual rights might well push us over the edge.