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On the one hand, if he repudiates Phase I, he will create more uncertainty, hurt the economy, and drive his beloved stock market down. On the other hand, if he doesn’t, he will undercut his argument that China is responsible for all of our misfortunes, economic and otherwise. What to do?

Leave everyone hanging, of course. It’s his favorite tactic. It makes him the perpetual center of attention and leaves all of his options open. What it doesn’t do is solve any problems, except for him.

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, socialism blues.

You have to be aware of it; it’s all over the news.

I thought I had it all wrapped up; I’ve really paid my dues.

Now it seems in retrospect that I was bound to lose.

_____________

I would have been the country’s hope; a second FDR.

But my lefty past, it seems, was just a bridge too far.

I know I won’t be president; my age will be a bar.

Now our hope is AOC; she’s our rising star.

_________________

I’ve got the blues.

The nomination blues.

Now that I am history

The dirtbag left must choose.

If they don’t go out and vote

Then Trump will likely win.

We have to get them to the polls

‘Cause that would be a sin.

For the Democrats, the pandemic is all about pictures of exhausted but heroic doctors, nurses, and first responders; mass graves in NYC; and long lines of unemployed workers waiting for free food. Strong stuff, that.

What do the Republicans have in response? Protesters with assault rifles? Trump bloviating at press conferences? Happy spring breakers at the beach?

Images can drive narratives, which decide elections. I would much rather be working on commercials for Biden than Trump.

On the DOJ head William Barr.

In Trump’s firmament he’s a big star.

Now Flynn will go free.

It sure seems to me

That Hungary is now where we are.

To be fair, if left to his own devices, Mike Pompeo would probably be a reasonably decent Secretary of State. His positions on Russia, NATO, and liberal democratic values, just to name three, are within the mainstream of traditional Republican thought. But Pompeo works for Donald Trump, so none of that matters. How does he reconcile his opinions with those of his capricious boss?

It works like this:

1. Provide public support for traditional American positions except where it is already known that Trump does not agree with them.
2. If, as he frequently does, Trump makes an impulsive decision and makes statements that are inconsistent with yours or with the apparent truth, lie and say there is no inconsistency.
3. If you are pressed on the inconsistency, change the subject by blowing up and attacking the press.

As a survival tactic, this appears to work fairly well. As a basis for diplomacy, it is a disaster. No one outside of Trump’s bubble believes a word you say. As a result, America no longer has any real allies–just skeptical business partners pursuing their own interests.

You can argue that Barack Obama’s most difficult, and best, decision was to bail out GM. He managed to avoid a crippling loss of jobs and confidence without ultimately losing any of the public’s money. Do the airlines present the same issue, and will they get the same treatment?

Unlike GM, the airlines were not failing at the time of the pandemic. Their existing business model will not, however, survive a lengthy period of distancing and less than full planes, which is very likely to occur. In my view, like the banks in 2008, they are effectively a public utility that needs to be protected; the loss of them would be felt all over the country. And so, I have every expectation that the current bailout will be continued as long as necessary, probably with the government taking a temporary equity stake, as it did with GM, and selling it when things improve.

It’s a mistake to pay too much attention to the specific programs advocated by presidential candidates, because the country you campaign to lead is rarely the country you get. George W. Bush didn’t run as the scourge of Saddam and Islamic extremists; Obama didn’t run as the man who would save us from the Great Recession; and Trump obviously didn’t anticipate a pandemic.

The assumption during most of the campaign was that the next president would inherit a country with full employment. Realistically, while the public health crisis will have waned somewhat in January, 2021, the economy will be struggling, and unemployment will be very high. Trump’s nonsensical response to this will be to cut taxes for the wealthy. What will Biden’s plan look like?

I think he will support a fairly conventional stimulus based on two kinds of programs: a massive green infrastructure plan; and a temporary public health initiative that will look in some respects like M4A, but without the cost controls. This will replace the current regime of, essentially, using the government to keep the economy on life support; by January, unlike today, it will be obvious which businesses have a future without perpetual public assistance, and which will not. There will be widespread public support for both initiatives, and they would have a decent chance of getting through the Senate by way of the reconciliation process.

A picture of Trump at the Lincoln Memorial reminded me of a fake future news post from 2016 in which I envisioned Paul Ryan trying to find money for a grandiose Trump Monument. The question for today is, what would be a fit monument for the man on golf cart?

Given that his legacy will be division and bigotry, and his most memorable policy initiative is the wall, I would suggest a white marble wall with figures of white people on one side and people of color on the other. That says it all.

We know that Trump is going to try and paint Biden as being soft on China. How should Biden respond? I would suggest something like this:

1. Historically, members of both parties hoped and believed that integrating China into the web of global commerce would result, not just in increased prosperity, but in a friendlier and more democratic country. That clearly didn’t happen. China is becoming more aggressive and authoritarian by the day.
2. That said, our relationship with China is complicated, and we need to use carrots as well as sticks. We need to be able to cooperate with the Chinese on a variety of issues, including the virus and climate change.
3. Trump’s response to the Chinese challenge has been blustery, but singularly inept. He sucks up to Xi, ignores human rights issues, imposes tariffs for no clear purpose, and does his best to alienate the allies we need to change Chinese behavior. As a result, we have made no real progress on North Korea, the Chinese are continuing to militarize rocks in the South China Sea, and Taiwan and Hong Kong are under increased pressure. In addition, American consumers are paying more than they need to for Chinese manufactured goods, which benefits exactly no one in either country.
4. We need a new approach. We need to work with our allies to change the rules of world trade in our favor, instead of annoying them by calling them worse than the Chinese. We need to maintain a strong military presence in the South China Sea in order to keep our allies’ trade routes open. We need an open and transparent investigation of the origins of the virus to make sure it doesn’t happen again. We should not, however, make ridiculous demands for compensation that are never going to be satisfied, and we need to respond to the economic challenge by fixing things that we can control instead of insisting that the Chinese simply give up their attempts to modernize, because that isn’t going to happen.
5. Most of all, we need to stop using China as a scapegoat for our problems. China didn’t force us to respond so poorly to the virus. China didn’t demand that we shred our safety net, or treat climate change as a hoax, or pass a huge tax cut that primarily helps wealthy people, or put the regulatory screws to our workers. We did that to ourselves by electing a man who is clearly unfit for his office. If you elect me, that will stop.

Based on ideology and the fate of the Warsaw Pact countries, we knew what awaited us if we lost the Cold War: totalitarian rule by a Communist Party answerable to Moscow; the loss of all political and legal rights; and the destruction of all private businesses of any size. Does China aspire to something similar?

No. Given its history and belief in Chinese exceptionalism, China’s model for world domination is the relationship between the Middle Kingdom and vassal states, not the Soviet Union and its satellites. The Chinese do not care what kind of legal, political, and economic system we have as long as it doesn’t criticize China or prevent it from doing business as it sees fit. As a result, there would be some constraints on free speech, and the possibility of camps for political opponents, but nothing worse than that.

Do you find that comforting? I’m guessing not.

As originally envisioned by the man on golf cart, the proposed payroll tax cut made no sense, because it was an effort to stimulate economic activity at a time when the government was mandating business closures in the name of public health. The idea clearly hasn’t gone away, however, and conditions are somewhat different. Would it make sense today?

No–not unless and until the public health problem has been brought under much better control, and a conventional stimulus would be appropriate. We’re not there yet; we’re still in compensation for restrictive regulations mode. We should welcome the proposal for one reason, however; GOP efforts to deplete the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will be difficult to explain to the elderly in November.

Why hasn’t the vaccine just leaped out of the awesome scientific brain of the Very Stable Genius on its own accord? Based on his self-promotion, he alone should be able to solve this problem!

As we know, Trump won the 2016 election in spite of losing the popular vote by running the table in the swing states. How do the Democrats reverse that?

There are basically two ways to get to 270, assuming that Michigan will be flipped, as seems likely:

1. WIN FLORIDA OR TEXAS: Trump is going to be in trouble in Florida, as Biden will appeal to the elderly population, and the economic and public health effects of the virus will be particularly horrendous. I’m much more skeptical about Texas, but it isn’t impossible.
2. WIN TWO FAIRLY BIG SWING STATES: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina are in play. Biden has strong historic ties to Pennsylvania; I think that one is his best bet. The others could go either way.

Here are the three scenarios, and the results:

1. A GOP SWEEP: Trump and the Republicans spike the football by cutting taxes for the wealthy, shredding the safety net, and repealing Obamacare, even in a pandemic. This is exactly the wrong approach for the times, and the recovery slows to a crawl, even with a vaccine. They don’t care. It’s the fruits of victory, you know.
2. A DEMOCRATIC SWEEP: The Democrats push through an expansionary budget that includes massive investments in green infrastructure and public health. The recovery accelerates.
3. MIXED GOVERNMENT: There is no meaningful legislation of any kind. The lights are kept on through agreements that reflect the spending priorities of both parties. As such, the budget is mildly expansionary, and the recovery continues at a reasonable pace.

Here’s what I think I know about November:

1. BIDEN IS GOING TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE. His margin on a national basis is too high and stable for Trump to overcome, even under significantly different circumstances.
2. THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HOLD THE HOUSE: That was likely even before the pandemic and the ensuing recession. There will be no dramatic recovery, and the GOP will be blamed to some extent.
3. THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD WIN SEATS IN THE SENATE: That’s just a matter of math. The GOP is defending far more seats.

Here’s what I don’t know:

1. WHO WINS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? Trump is going to have to run the table in the swing states again to win. The odds are against it, but it certainly isn’t impossible; he proved that in 2016.
2. CAN THE DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE SENATE? There are enough seats in play to make that a realistic possibility. The balance of probabilities is against it, though. We will need a wave election for it to happen.

There are three scenarios for what happens to the nation in 2021: a GOP sweep; a Democratic sweep; or mixed government. I will discuss each of those in my next post.