Category: Uncategorized

On the Democrat nominee Biden.

In his basement some said he was hidin’.

Trump rants and he rails;

The economy fails;

And the lead will continue to widen.

Reggie Miller apparently called Michael Jordan “Black Jesus.” How about “Orange Jesus?”

We know how Trump will campaign against Biden. He will attempt to belittle him at every turn; he will blame liberals, governors, China, the MSM, and anyone other than himself for his failures; and he will lie, over and over again, about his record and Biden’s. How should Biden respond to this?

Nancy Pelosi drives Trump nuts by patronizing him. Ted Cruz did the same thing, with some success, during the 2016 debates. A similar approach might work for Biden between now and November.

As you would expect from a group of used car salesmen, Trump and his economic advisers are predicting that the economy will come roaring back in the next few quarters. According to Politico, one former Obama economic adviser thinks they’re right. Are they?

In my opinion, no, although conditions are likely to be improving, simply because they can’t get much worse. The lack of a viable plan for the control of the virus will reduce consumer confidence for the foreseeable future, as I’ve noted many times before. Publicity given to a wave of bankruptcies will impact confidence, too. GOP-driven austerity measures, particularly relating to unemployment insurance and state and local governments, won’t help. The possible escalation of the trade war with China for domestic political reasons could rattle the markets. Finally, we are going to see some serious debt crises among the emerging countries, particularly in Latin America, and tourism and exports will continue to be crippled by the virus.

I just don’t see how a V-shaped recovery is reasonably possible under these circumstances. It will be something between a V and a U. Whether the electorate will view that as a glass half full or half empty remains to be seen.

Imagine that you are Governor Cooper of North Carolina. You have just received a communication from the Trump campaign that you had better open up unconditionally, or the convention could be moved from Charlotte. How do you respond?

This is a blatantly political move from a notorious bully. He thinks he has leverage over you in the form of lost revenue from the convention, but he can’t really afford to move the convention from a swing state, particularly at this late hour.

Be polite and respectful, but firm. Tell him that you look forward to working with the RNC and his people to make the convention work, but make it clear that the health of your citizens, and the delegates at the convention, is an overriding priority. It’s too early to commit to anything right now. Your actions will be driven by the public health data at the time and sound practices, not a desire to make money at any cost.

That, in all likelihood, will shut him up. If not, you have made the case for public health being the highest priority in your state. Don’t be afraid to run on that in November.

If you had any doubt about it, the images from Memorial Day made it clear: this election, to a large extent, will be a battle between the side that wears masks and the side that doesn’t. How will that work out?

Trump’s swagger is largely intended to give people who are worried about the future a sense of security. Under normal circumstances, at a psychological level, it makes sense. Will it have the same effect in a pandemic, particularly among the elderly? By insisting on reopening at any costs, by identifying with lockdown protesters, and by refusing to wear a mask, isn’t he sending a message to workers and the elderly that he considers them expendable?

Indeed he is, and he is likely to pay for it in November.

Jared Kushner apparently has the idea of reducing the size of the GOP platform to an index card. It sounds a bit like the old plan to put the tax form on a postcard, which didn’t exactly work out. Can this be more successful?

Absolutely! Here’s an idea for a one-word platform:

TRUMP!

Hey, why say anything more than that? The real GOP platform is to agree with anything that pops into the brilliant mind of the man on golf cart at any given moment. Traditional ideas like balanced budgets, free trade, and support for liberal democracies and the rule of law are out of date. Why not just rely on the name and be done with it?

OK, so you want a little more substance. How’s this:

REAL AMERICANS!

CULTURE WARS!

TAX CUTS!

DEREGULATION!

BUILD THE WALL!

That’s ten words. It’s enough to exhaust a man who only reads bullet points. Anything more, to him, would look like “War and Peace.”

I hate visiting military cemeteries on Memorial Day! Those people were losers! I only like winners–the men that lived!

Just as I don’t know anyone who fought and died in battle, I don’t know anyone who has died from the virus, or who provides medical services to its victims. All I have to go on is words and images. I’m not foolish enough to believe that’s enough for any real understanding.

What I think I can say is that to go to a hospital every day with inadequate protective equipment and try to save lives takes every bit as much courage and strength as facing enemy bullets. And so I offer my thanks to both groups this year, and hope that circumstances will put both out of business in the years to come.

He was an American athlete who turned into an international icon. Absolutely single-minded in his pursuit of victory, he was brutally hard on himself and his teammates, and left nothing to chance. He was rewarded for it by several consecutive victories, after which he retired. When he came back later on, he was just a shadow of himself.

Is it Armstrong or Jordan? You decide.

ESPN’s juxtaposition of “The Last Dance” and “Lance” (“The Lance Dance”?) is interesting in that, while one is revered and the other reviled, they had much in common. Jordan had more charm, and was never faced with the choice of losing or breaking the rules. He can be grateful for that.

I started to suspect it when Ross Douthat wrote a wobbly column in last Sunday’s NYT. An article in Vox confirmed it; Viktor Orban has a big cheering section among mainstream right wing pundits in this country, including the author of “The Benedict Option.”

Call it “The Orban Option.” Why retire from secular life when you can hitch your wagon to a man who crushes every liberal democratic norm in sight in the name of Christianity? What’s freedom of speech, fair elections, a depoliticized judiciary, and clean government when you can get rid of abortion, pornography, and gay rights?

This is really scary, folks. The reactionary base in this country is already locked and loaded for illiberal democracy at best, and fascism at worst. Trump is too lazy and narcissistic to pursue this agenda single-mindedly by himself, but now he has Barr at his side. If the mainstream right is cheering him on, who’s going to stop him?

Only we can. This is looking like the real Flight 93 election, but for the center and the left, not the far right. If we can’t beat someone with Trump’s personality and record under the current conditions, what future does liberal democracy have in this country?

As I’ve noted before, the Hong Kong protesters remind me of characters from sixties existentialist movies; they know they will almost certainly be crushed in the end, but they continue to resist, because it ennobles them and affirms their humanity. It’s hopeless, but it’s inspiring, too.

So why is this happening, and where does it end? The answer to the second question almost certainly is, with blood. The protesters aren’t going to give up now, and the Chinese government has thrown down the gauntlet. The only real unknown is whether the Hong Kong security forces can be trusted to do the job, or whether it will be done by the PLA. My guess is the latter, but I could be wrong.

As to the attitude of the Chinese government, it is being shaped by a number of things. One of them is the belief that it has enough large financial centers, and no longer needs Hong Kong. Another is that the economic systems of the US and China are decoupling, so the bridge between the two will be increasingly useless. A third is the obvious intent of the Trump administration to make China a scapegoat for all of America’s problems. A fourth is concern about possible domestic political fallout from the pandemic. In the final analysis, however, the biggest factor is that the Chinese have come to believe that they can overcome any opposition in the rest of the world by threats of military force or, more often, by buying off their adversaries; softer forms of persuasion are no longer necessary. That’s a really bad sign for the future.

No! And I have as much authority to say that as he does to opine about state regulations on houses of worship.

According to Politico, Georgia isn’t seeing any massive increase in infections as a result of the governor’s relaxation of restrictions, but the economy isn’t showing any improvement, either. Prominent observers have concluded from this that the fate of the economy depends, not on the speed of deregulation, but on consumer confidence.

Well, duh. I said that two months ago.

So what are those stupid demonstrators going to say when the states are all open, and nothing is improving? Are they going to come picket in front of my house and demand that I start going to restaurants and bars again?

Obviously not. Since Trump disclaims any responsibility for the effects of the virus, they’re going to blame China. In reality, the speed of the recovery is in our own hands, but it depends on the degree of confidence that the government and private businesses have earned from American consumers. Right now, you would have to say that the private sector is trying to do its part, but the federal response has been a miserable failure at virtually every level, and the states have been a mixed bag.

The Chinese government’s decision to crack down on Hong Kong presents Trump with a difficult decision. On the one hand, he truly values his relationship with Xi, he doesn’t want to engage in any kind of a shooting war, he has no interest in promoting liberal democracy and human rights in Hong Kong (or anywhere else), and he knows an escalation of the trade war will cause his beloved Dow to plummet. On the other hand, being tough on the Chinese is the centerpiece of his campaign. What will he do?

Trump typically deals with contradictions in his policy by dividing the labor and sending mixed messages. You can expect that to continue with Hong Kong. He will authorize Pompeo, other members of his administration, and prominent GOP members of Congress to make very hard line statements about human rights in Hong Kong, while he himself says little or nothing on the subject. By doing that, he will think he can have the best of both worlds.

What it will mean in the real world is that the Chinese will take any objections from us with a grain of salt, and do whatever they want.