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The analogy isn’t perfect, since judges and legislators perform different functions, but it occurred to me today that McConnell and the Chief Justice actually have a lot in common. Both of them are strong right-wing partisans, of course, but you can make deals with them. Both of them play the long game; they will retreat when they think it is necessary to preserve something more important, even if it means they take criticism from their own side. Both are greatly concerned about the workings and public image of the body that they lead. Finally, it is likely that both of them want to use the judiciary to put an enduring impediment in front of any future progressive legislation.

Will they prevail? Don’t bet against them in the short run. In the longer run, if they don’t give considerably more ground, trouble is brewing. Millennials aren’t going to tolerate a system that frustrates their agenda forever.

(Trump tried to persuade his strongman buddies to attend the convention at his hotel as usual, but they thought it was too risky, so they’re meeting virtually, instead. Trump is alone in the Oval Office. Putin is first on the screen.)

T: Vlad the Impaler! How are you doing, bro?

P: I’m always happy to see you, Donald, and I’m working hard for your re-election, but I just don’t know if I can pull it off this time. It’s going to be tough.

T: Don’t worry. I’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat. I always do.

P: I hate to sound like a broken record, but the virus and the riots have given you the perfect opportunity to become a proper strongman, and you haven’t taken advantage of them. You should be shooting protesters, shutting down the media, and cancelling the election. That’s what I would do.

T: It’s not that easy here. This isn’t Russia, you know.

P: Man up, Donald! Stop being a wimp and blaming everyone but yourself! You can make your miserable country as great as Russia if you just have the will!

(Duterte has appeared on the screen)

T: Rodrigo, you old son of a bitch! Good to see you!

D: And you, you son of a whore!

P: Now, there’s a man who knows how to be a strongman! He doesn’t shrink from putting opponents in jail and shooting criminals! You could learn a lot from him.

D: I do what’s necessary, and my people love me.

T: But why are you so cozy with the Chinese?

D: I’m only here to tell you that this is my last convention with you. I have to get off to do a deal with Xi.

T: Why? Why not me?

D: Because no one trusts you, Donald. Xi may be a threat, but at least he keeps his word.

(Putin and Duterte exit; Xi comes on)

T: My favorite Chinaman! How’s it going!

X: I’m just here to say goodbye. We’re tired of being bashed by you. This “kung flu” thing is the last straw.

T: But it’s not personal! I never criticize you. It’s just your people and culture I can’t stand. Anyway, it’s just business–I’m sure you understand.

X: You hurt the feelings of the Chinese people when you talk about the “kung flu.” It’s personal with over a billion people. I can’t ignore what they think. This is the end for me.

(Xi departs; Kim comes on)

T: Rocketman! We heard you were dead!

K: They said that about Paul McCartney, too, and he’s still here.

T: I’ve been trying to send you a copy of “Rocketman.” You’ll love it! How should I address it?

K: Donald, I’ve tried to be patient with you, but you haven’t delivered anything to me. I’m tired of giving you credibility and photo-ops by pretending to be your friend. I’m putting an end to the charade. This is it.

(Kim leaves. Erdogan is now on)

T: Turkish delight! Congratulations on your victory in Libya!

E: Not that you helped. There was a time when America could solve problems like Libya. Now it’s up to me.

T: But you’re winning, and that’s good! The next time you come to America, we can celebrate at my hotel. I’ll give you a special deal on happy hour!

(Erdogan cuts out abruptly, leaving Trump all alone)

He struggled mightily to make a decision, but in the end, Robert E. Lee couldn’t turn his back on the country he had served for decades. He sold his Virginia property, moved his family north, and accepted Lincoln’s offer to serve as the commander of the Union armies.

With its vast advantage in resources and Lee’s highly competent leadership, the Union quickly prevailed in the Civil War. Richmond fell early in 1861, and the Confederate government collapsed. Lincoln offered generous terms to the seceding states; emancipation was not even discussed in this process. The status quo had been essentially restored by the end of 1861. But had the slavery issue really disappeared?

Not at all. The real reckoning was still ahead. Lee’s decision had only postponed it.

Life in the time of Trump.

The virus stalks the land.

But Trump denies it’s happening.

His head’s still in the sand.

The problem is too many tests.

He claims that he’s not kidding.

The right demands to open up

The GDP is skidding.

Trump senses an opening. He’s going after protesters who are attacking Confederate statues, claiming that the protesters have no respect for American history, and are seeking to impose their PC values on the rest of us. Is he right, and does this make political sense?

Trump is an unlikely supporter of the Confederacy. He obviously didn’t grow up there, and has no natural appreciation of its culture or values. He hates losers; they lost. He rejects the whole notion of the exceptionalism of American institutions and values; to him, only power matters. Finally, the swing states are predominantly in what was the Union (Florida, with its unusual demographics, doesn’t count). How is running as the leader of the party of Jefferson Davis going to get him votes in Pennsylvania or Michigan?

He’s on more solid ground when he talks about Andrew Jackson, Columbus, or Theodore Roosevelt. These men may not have been saints, but they weren’t traitors, and their impact on America is undeniable. Who is to say that today’s PC crusaders won’t be viewed as bigots 200 years from now? Jackson, et. al., should stay in place.

Over the last 3+ years, there have been two inconsistent threads to Trump’s thinking about China. They are:

1. The real problem with China is the trade deficit. If you can make a deal for managed trade that reduces the deficit, Wall Street will cheer, and you can have a victory lap in front of the electorate. The ultimate objective is re-election; the deal will help with that. Bigger, structural issues can wait until the second term.
2. China is an existential military and economic threat, to be fought with every tool consistent with “America First.” The virus is a form of biological warfare launched deliberately by the evil Communists against unsuspecting Americans. This is a brutal, deadly war that cannot be put off. It is a clash of civilizations that we absolutely must win.

These threads are mutually exclusive. Fear of China is clearly one of the cornerstones of the campaign. Which option will he ultimately choose?

To date, both! Consistency is the hobgoblin of minds much smaller than his. He can bash China mercilessly (kung flu! kung flu!) AND boast about the trade deals he made with their wise and powerful leaders which, in reality, only mitigated a part of the damage he did himself with his stupid tariffs. Take that, Biden!

It will be Biden’s task to make the obvious point that this makes no sense whatsoever, and that Trump has done nothing except alienate the allies we need for this battle, such as it is.

What a front porch was to William McKinley, a basement is to Biden. And, as with McKinley, it’s working! The less Biden says and does, the more his lead increases. Can this last?

For the most part, yes. Biden needs to do enough to refute Trump’s argument that he is weak and senile. Otherwise, every day that the incumbent is the issue is a day won, and Trump’s insatiable desire for attention makes that easy. Just make some powerful ads, rely on surrogates, and let the magic of the man on golf cart’s craziness do the work for you.

There isn’t much to admire about culture warriors. In the red corner, the historically predominant side, now a minority, is baying about “religious freedom” because imposing its values on the population is becoming increasingly difficult. Some of its prominent adherents have made it clear that they will support the Orban option and throw liberal democracy in the trash if their values aren’t written in law. The blue corner is full of people who are so filled with their own sense of righteousness, they can’t admit that the red side is supported by scripture and thousands of years of precedent. To them, everyone in the red corner is a fool and a bigot. Neither side will talk to the other. No wonder our country is so divided.

That’s why the compromise floating in an op-ed in today’s NYT is so heartening. It proposes a deal in which the blues get their position on gay rights established as the law, and the reds get clearly defined carve-outs. A win-win! I approve, and hope Biden read it; something like it may be our last hope for a settlement that staves off a massive and unwelcome constitutional change in the future.

Donald Trump was elected to be a disrupter: to divide the nation; to prefer his uninformed instincts to the advice of experts; and to throw gas on the fire. The fruits of that approach are now apparent: an inept response to a pandemic and blood on the streets. What does he do now?

Trump consistently responds to crises either by doubling down or by saying or doing something outrageous in order to change the subject. A war with Iran is going to be on the table because, at this point, where else can he go? His only other hope is a miracle cure for the virus, and even his happy sales talk can’t produce one of those.

The Democrats won a wave election in 2008 because the public correctly perceived that the usual GOP menu of tax cuts and deregulation wasn’t a solution to a financial crisis. John McCain made his name attacking bridges to nowhere. Did you really want to hire him to bail out GM?

Whether 2020 turns into a similar debacle for the GOP depends largely on what happens during the next several weeks. The current plan to revive the economy, if you can call it that, is to boost supply by reducing unemployment benefits and thereby forcing people to go back to work. The problem, of course, is that the recession is primarily the result of a lack of consumer confidence; in other words, it is driven by a lack of demand, not supply. Many of the jobs to which the workers are being compelled to return no longer exist. Increasing misery will make the problem worse, not better.

If the GOP sticks to this line, and additionally refuses to assist state and local governments, the recession will deepen, and they will justly be blamed for it in November.

The Swedes opted for a less rigorous regulatory regime than their Nordic neighbors in the hope that earlier herd immunity and less economic damage were an acceptable trade-off for more short term deaths. To date, you would have to say that it isn’t working. But hey, at least it was a plan, and you won’t really be able to judge it until we have a vaccine.

If you try to ascertain the contents of Trump’s “plan” by its results, it would be a similar trade-off. In reality, there is no plan; he simply grabbed the marshmallow before the fifteen minutes expired, because he’s incapable to sticking to anything for more than a few days. As a result, we have the worst of all possible worlds: a much higher death rate than the Europeans, with no end in sight; plus significantly diminished economic activity due to a lack of consumer confidence.

So now what? The new GOP “plan” seems to be to coerce a higher level of economic activity by depriving workers of their additional unemployment benefits and forcing them to return to work. Good luck with that; it certainly won’t build the level of confidence in the public health system that is really needed to improve the economy.

You might ask, why even bother? The man is a walking, talking negative ad every day he remains in office, and it’s all free! What’s more, he’s likely to become even more unhinged as his desperation increases. Just put out positive, reassuring ads and let events take their course.

For the most part, that will work, but there are certain parts of Trump’s record that require some emphasis. Make sure the public doesn’t fall for his efforts to rewrite history on the virus. Show him as being weak and inept on China. Run footage of him as an ignorant, capricious leader who is laughed at by the rest of the world. Correct the public misconception that he is a self-made man. Portray him as a friend of plutocrats who consistently opposes regulations and legislation that would help average workers.

But don’t spend much money on the corruption and authoritarian angles, because everyone already knows about them. It’s a waste of resources.

Life in the time of Trump.

Some black lives have been lost.

The president says clean the streets

No matter what the cost.

Most protesters have kept the peace.

The public has their backs.

But Trump just can’t show empathy.

It’s something that he lacks.

Contrary to popular legend, Trump’s core supporters aren’t white workers; they’re small business owners who hate government interference in their affairs and mistakenly identify with him as a self-made man. These are the kind of people you would see waving assault rifles around state buildings, demanding an end to lockdown regulations. By and large, they got what they wanted.

But what now? In most places, you can’t make much of a living by serving only people who swagger and refuse to wear a mask. How are these folks going to operate their businesses if large segments of the public don’t feel safe there?

It’s going to be tough sledding for them. And they had better not cry for assistance when the wolf is at their door. They’re proud, rugged individuals, and they don’t believe in dependency and government handouts, right?

A new study has shown that the severity of the recession is largely due to a dramatic reduction in discretionary spending by the affluent. It is fair to assume that this mostly means tourism, restaurants, and entertainment. What kind of stimulus would bring this spending back and restore the economy to health?

A stimulus won’t work. The rich don’t need another tax cut; they already have plenty of cash piled up waiting to be put to some productive use. What they need is the confidence that they won’t catch the virus if they go to the theater. Trump and the GOP don’t seem to understand that; they just think that forcing people to go back to their low-paying jobs will do the trick.

Where stimulus helps is with maintaining the spending of the less affluent. Like the previous rounds of stimulus, the next round consequently needs to focus on wage subsidies, unemployment insurance, and money for health care. Without this kind of help, the economy is going to get worse, not better.