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Trump is attending an Independence Day celebration at Mt. Rushmore. There will be no masks and no social distancing.

My response: The only surprise here is that he would deign to appear with presidents who weren’t nearly as awesome as he is.

Life in the time of Trump.

The polls are looking bad.

Election’s just four months away.

Conservatives are mad.

Biden’s got a ten point lead.

The left is celebrating.

Between now and November, sure

There’ll be a lot of hating.

There are three separate threads of reactionary thought:

1. Religious Reactionaries are primarily concerned with the declining status of Christianity in American law, thought, and culture;
2. Economic Reactionaries lament their loss of status as the result of technological change and globalization: and
3. Racial Reactionaries worry that “real” American culture is being swamped by outsiders, who demand cuts in line.

These categories are hardly mutually exclusive; many Reactionaries would fall into all three of them. Not all of them, however.

So how do you deal with them, and are they entitled to any sympathy? In the case of the Christians, they have thousands of years on their side, and they can be mollified by carve-outs. Everyone would agree that we should try to find a way to improve the lot of the second group that doesn’t involve tariffs. Only the third group is beyond redemption. We have nothing to offer them except an acknowledgement that there will always be a place for white people in this country.

I’m old enough to remember when black people were called “Negroes.” In the late sixties or early seventies, it must have been concluded that “Negro” smacked too much of Uncle Tom, so the term of choice was changed to “black.” That made perfect sense. At some point in the late eighties or early nineties, however, the politically correct term changed again, to “African-American.” I wasn’t that wild about this one, as it would literally apply to a white South African who immigrated to this country, but the term stuck, so I went with it. Today, “Black” has suddenly emerged as the PC favorite.

To be honest, I’m torn. On the one hand, I feel like I’m being railroaded by an unrepresentative left-wing Twitter mob; furthermore, it would logically require us to capitalize “White,” as well. On the other hand, I think people have a right to decide what they are called without judgment from outsiders. In the end, I will probably bow to this choice as well, but not without some temporary objections.

Here is what the Chief Justice really meant to say in the abortion case:

Look, Louisiana, I’m on your side. I don’t support abortion. I don’t even think there is any kind of constitutional right to a abortion. But I care about the reputation of the Supreme Court. I can’t have people thinking that we’re just a bunch of unelected politicians in robes. That will damage both the GOP and the country.

Bring me a case that is plausibly different from the last one and I will rule in your favor. This one didn’t pass the straight face test. Better luck next time.

The message from the GOP leadership has completely changed. Mitch McConnell openly supports wearing masks. Fox celebrities have fallen in line. Even Trump no longer disparages them. What’s going on here?

Two things. First, the party is coming across as callous and inept to moderates and the elderly. Second, the refusal to embrace the use of masks has a direct impact on the virus numbers, and, therefore, on consumer confidence.. If Trump has to eat a little humble pie in order to supercharge the recovery, well, so be it.

The real question here is whether the Reactionaries will accept the new message from the leadership and change their behavior. I think it will be a mixed bag. It won’t be nearly enough to bring the economy back.

The commercials for GOP House candidates that I have seen in two states all feature rabid culture warriors who pledge undying loyalty to Donald Trump. Many of them include images of burning cities. More than a few showcase AOC and Nancy Pelosi. But Joe Biden is missing in action. He is nowhere to be found. He doesn’t scare the voters enough to be a target.

That was the point of nominating him. It’s working.

After the election of 1866, the Radical Republicans decided to break up the plantations and distribute the land to the former slaves. In spite of ferocious resistance from the plantation owners, and lukewarm support from war-weary voters in the North, the Union Army succeeded in carrying out the order. A revolution of sorts, it seemed, had come to the South.

Unfortunately, there was far more to operating a successful cotton farm than the willingness to work hard. The former slaves had little access to capital and lacked the technical expertise and the vast web of connections in the business and financial worlds that the plantation owners had developed over the years. As a result, most of the farms went under, and ultimately were repurchased by their former owners. The freed slaves became hired laborers or sharecroppers.

Radical Reconstruction was viewed as a noble experiment that had failed. Subsequent claims for reparations from the descendants of the freed slaves were rejected on the ground that adequate compensation had already been provided to their ancestors.

As I’ve noted before, Trump’s greatest accomplishment has been to convince virtually everyone in the GOP that he is all that stands between them and the hellscape of socialism and political correctness. Republican campaign ads bear this out. Every single ad for a GOP candidate that I have seen promises unconditional support for Trump. Most contain footage of riots, looting, and a crazed-looking AOC. Some involve guns and Christianity. Trump would approve.

But what about the electorate? What if the voters have looked around and decided Trump’s blazing mouth isn’t actually keeping them safe from the virus, the Chinese, and a recession? What if they see him for what he is—a man on golf cart?

We’ll see.

As I noted previously, Reactionaries are not genuine libertarians. They have no problem engaging in collective action against the other; hence, lynchings. But they have failed miserably to control the virus. Why?

Two reasons. First, Reactionaries believe in the power of will and prayer, not science and expertise. Second, they are so emotionally and intellectually invested in the concept of fighting for liberty against a morally corrupt government that they couldn’t change course under circumstances that required collective action. That inflexibility was a big part of Trump’s failures, but he wasn’t alone. Just ask the governors of Florida, Texas, and Arizona.

Presumably emboldened by the size of Biden’s lead, the left is pushing harder on its wish list. And so, Sunday’s NYT included a long column making the case for reparations, and we have an argument for removing statues of all slaveholders—including Washington—in today’s paper.

My response to the reparations column will be lengthy, and will have to wait until I have the use of a proper keyboard. The Washington argument, however, is a piece of moral and political obtuseness that makes the case for the right just as much as Trump makes it for the left. This is middle America’s nightmare. It is a Trump commercial waiting to happen. It has to stop until Trump has actually been defeated, or he won’t be.

Trump ran in 2016 as a kind of real life Batman. So why does he have such a problem wearing a mask? Batman does!

Two possible answers: the mask doesn’t work without a cape; or he identifies more with the Joker. If he doesn’t, he should.

Historically, America was an evangelist for liberal democracy, free trade, and the international rule of law. In spite of many mistakes, in the big picture, it has worked. The world is a far more peaceful and prosperous place than it used to be.

To our critics on the right (Putin) and left (the authors of the 1619 Project), this is all self-serving eyewash. America is only about racism and power and self-interest. We delude ourselves when we think otherwise.

Trump basically agrees with the critics. Worse, he actually goes further and openly embraces the critique. He makes the case against us every day.

And that, among many other reasons, is why he has to go.

Barring some truly awful and unforeseeable event, there will be no red wave in November. That leads us with the following three scenarios:

1. TRUMP WINS ANOTHER SQUEAKER: The federal government remains divided, as the GOP is in no position to retake the House. Trump predictably views the outcome as vindication for his lawless ways, and GOP members of Congress fall into line. The party is consequently even more identified with Trump’s whims and corruption than before, and constitutional crises ensue. Things don’t look good for 2024, but it isn’t clear that there will even be another election, as Trump’s authoritarian streak, abetted by Barr, becomes more conspicuous.
2. BIDEN WINS NARROWLY; THE SENATE STAYS RED: There is very little meaningful legislation, but Biden and McConnell at least work together to keep the lights on. Trump’s failure is generally viewed in the GOP as the product of bad luck with the pandemic. There are no fundamental changes within the party; the PBP/Reactionary bargain remains in effect.
3. BLUE WAVE!: Now things get more exciting! The Reactionaries and the PBPs start tearing each other to pieces. PBPs blame Trump’s capriciousness and lack of interest in working with anyone outside his base for his failures; Reactionaries, on the other hand, blame the PBPs for not doing enough to support their man. The 2024 primaries turn into a contest pitting a pure Reactionary (Hawley, perhaps?) against a Reagan Coalition candidate (Cotton?). Who wins? Stay tuned.

The virus was a marvelous opportunity for Trump to redefine himself as a “wartime president” and win the country over with his competence and leadership ability. To put it mildly, he has failed miserably. Why?

It all comes down to his personal shortcomings. Part of it is his childish lack of patience. Part of it is his unwillingness to actually do the hard work of governing. Part of it is his incredibly selfish desire to take credit for successes and to shift blame for failures. But I think a big part of it is his lack of imagination. He had decided that he was going to run as the man who brought the Trump economic boom to America. When the switch flipped, he simply didn’t have the mental flexibility to change his message. He insisted on keeping on in a dramatically different world, and he’s going to pay the price for it.