Category: Uncategorized

On the 45th President Trump.

Joe Biden has made him a grump.

We’re in a debate

Pitting hope against hate.

The polls say that hate’s getting dumped.

Biden is making massive investments in green infrastructure a centerpiece of his campaign, for both environmental and economic reasons. In light of the recession and ongoing climate change, this makes perfect sense. If the Democrats succeed in taking control of the Senate, is the approval of this initiative a done deal?

No, for the same reason that cap-and-trade failed: Senate Democrats will not be completely united on environmental issues. Biden will not be able to rely on Joe Manchin, or any Democratic senators from Montana, to vote against the interests of coal miners; in addition, there will problems getting anyone from Pennsylvania to put an end to fracking. The only way green investments will get through the Senate, regardless of any concerns about the filibuster, is if these people are essentially bought off with lots of funding for their respective states. That’s the American way.

Fortunately, Biden understands the Senate and is good at making deals, so he might succeed here where his more rigidly ideological colleagues would fail.

I’m currently reading a book entitled “The Civilization of the Middle Ages.” It’s well written and provocative in an academic sort of way, but the author lost me when he defended Innocent III’s use of the Inquisition in southern France. Where in the New Testament did Jesus advocate the use of torture to weed out heretics? Is coercion of belief really a core Christian principle? I must have missed that somewhere.

I bring this up because it is relevant today. Liberal values are under attack from two sides, in two different ways. Elements of the right want to use political power to legally impose their orthodoxy on the majority of Americans who don’t agree with them; the cancel culture left, on the other hand, is determined to use its presence on the internet to destroy the reputations of people who transgress its very different brand of orthodoxy. The rest of us are caught in the middle.

The two great attributes of liberalism are optimism and humility. Optimism, because the assumption is that the truth will prevail in an open marketplace of ideas; humility, because no one person or group is assumed to have a monopoly on wisdom. Our system has worked pretty well on that foundation for over 200 years. How much longer it will last, given the current trends, I cannot say.

You’re a businessman, and a conservative–a real one, not a reactionary baying for a return to some idealized version of the 1950’s. You’re perfectly happy to live in 2020, the pandemic and the social discord aside. You hate the culture wars, and just wish they would go away. You see the divisions in your country, and wonder what can be done to heal them.

You can’t stand Trump. You want to throw up every time you see him on the TV screen, which seems like all of the time. You despise his preening, incompetence, and corruption. His capriciousness, particularly with tariffs, has made your decisionmaking process much more difficult than it needs to be. You wonder how we could survive four more years of this.

But the Democrats concern you, too. It isn’t Biden, so much–you can live with him. You know you can survive the tax increases that are coming if the blue wave hits the shore; they would be a relatively small price to pay to regain some sense of stability. What bothers you more than anything is the attitude of too many rank-and-file Democrats; they clearly view you as an enemy, not someone who generates the wealth that pays for their cherished social programs. How much control will Biden have over these people? It’s hard to say.

You’re the swing voter in this election. If you vote for Trump, he has a puncher’s chance. If you don’t, the blue wave is coming. It’s in your hands.

If the race tightens, Biden wins a squeaker, and the GOP retains control of the Senate, the progressive agenda is dead, and the new administration will struggle just to keep the lights on. But what if we have a blue wave? Will the left’s demands be satisfied?

If there is, in fact, a blue wave, it will largely be due to the votes of older people who just want an end to the pandemic, the recession, and the daily drama. Biden will be at least as beholden to them as to socialist millennials. The filibuster obviously will continue to be a problem, too. And so, you will probably see tax increases on the rich, and more money spent on health care and social programs, but not a whole lot more than that.

What about funds for green infrastructure? I will address that issue tomorrow.

So how should Biden frame his acceptance speech? The overriding theme should be unity. It encompasses the most damaging criticism of Trump, appeals to moderates, and includes both the concerns of the left (inequality; health care; Black Lives Matter) and the right (white Christians are valued and entitled to protection, too).

Trump is bound to throw caution to the wind and give a red meat speech to his base, because it’s fun, and it’s the only thing he knows how to do. The contrast with my version of the Biden speech would be overwhelming. Given a stark choice between an arsonist and a fireman under the present circumstances, I have no doubt which way the mop will flop.

Trump says Biden will draw lower TV ratings than he does. For once, he’s right! An exhausted public will be grateful.

Most of us have learned by now that running the country is not the same as starring in a reality show. Trump will never figure that out.

One by one, the statues were pulled down. It was 2050, and Generation BB was having its revenge on its Gen Z forefathers. The figures in the Black Lives Matter movement that the millennials had so admired were now in disgrace.

Why? They ate animals, for one. They didn’t do enough to eliminate inequality. Mostly, it was because they–believe it or not–owned vehicles powered by fossil fuels! They went on and on about the ownership of human beings, but there they were, knowingly destroying the planet, and they did nothing, just because it was in their self-interest. Who could celebrate the lives of such hypocritical monsters in our more enlightened times?

The Trump administration smashes records for corruption every day. In addition, recent reports in the MSM have made it clear that the influence of lobbyists has not in any way been curtailed, which is no surprise, given the close ties between key government figures and business. For all of that, GOP candidates are still running to “drain the swamp.” How can that be?

What Trump and the GOP mean by the “swamp” is inconsistent with the normal use of the word. To them, it has nothing to do with undue influence and corruption, in the usual sense. As they see it, the will of the people, as personified by the man on golf cart, is being constantly frustrated by evil establishment forces in the media, the civil service, and the legal profession. Anyone who maintains the rule of law and liberal democratic norms, and thereby prevents Trump from being Trump, is consequently part of the “swamp,” and must be eliminated.

Or, to put it a different way, long live King Donald, and death to his adversaries! If he is corrupt, capricious, and incompetent, at least he’s on our side! That’s what really matters!

Once again, Mitt Romney said it best; the commutation of Roger Stone’s sentence was “unprecedented, historic corruption.” And yet, for this president, it was just another day at the office. Everyone expected it. The base couldn’t care less. So what?

Will this kind of behavior be the new norm for our elected officials? I don’t think anyone else will have the nerve to try it, particularly if form holds and Trump loses in November. If he wins, however, it is fair to say that our standards have been redefined, and what happens next is anyone’s guess.

Trump moved the convention to Jacksonville because he wanted assurances that he could throw red meat to a large, adoring, unmasked crowd. How’s that working for him? Virus cases are spiking in Florida, Jacksonville is requiring masks in public places, donors are balking, and GOP celebrities are declining to attend. It figures to be a complete fiasco.

It’s also a perfect metaphor for his presidency.

Like Notre Dame, Hagia Sophia belongs to all of us, not just the Turks. Better beef up that advertising budget, Mr. Erdogan; Christian tourists are not going to be impressed.

The average reactionary will indignantly deny he’s a racist. He gets along fine with black people, he will tell you. He may even have a black friend or two. He just hates the bad ones: the lazy ones who lounge in the hammock of dependency, pick his pocket, and scream about being the victims of discrimination. He’s the victim here! He’s a hard working real American, but does he get any credit for it? No! The government just takes the little money he has and gives lazy people who don’t deserve it cuts in line through massive affirmative action programs. Then they riot and loot when they can’t get their way! That’s what he just can’t stand.

Now, multiply this profile by about a hundred million, and imagine trying to sell what amounts to a supercharged version of affirmative action to the electorate. Try telling this guy he has white privilege, and should feel guilty for it. He’s more likely to use his cherished Second Amendment rights on you than to agree with you.

Establishing a methodology to compute the amount of the payment is relatively easy if the intent is to close the wealth gap; this information is readily available from public sources. But the ultimate decision would be political. Three questions would be pertinent:

1. Would it actually do much good?
2. Would it bring closure to the issue?
3. Can we afford it?

So what is an appropriate number? We could clearly afford $1,000 per household, based on the most recent stimulus payment, but it wouldn’t be nearly enough to close the gap, and it wouldn’t put an end to the issue. $5,000–same thing. $10,000? Now we’re talking about an enormous hit to the budget, but it still wouldn’t be enough for a black family to buy a car, let alone put the issue to bed. No, based on the numbers I have seen, the payment would have to be at least $50,000. The budgetary implications of that would be immense.

From my perspective, putting this kind of money into social programs that are race-blind on their face, but disproportionately help black people, would make a lot more sense.

The center right and center left parties in Germany have been in coalition for years. Macron effectively represents both sides of the moderate part of the French political spectrum against populists on the right and left. In Italy, an erratic left-wing populist party formed a brief and unwieldy coalition with a far right party. Is this combination of moderates against extremists the future of American politics?

Probably not in the short run. As long as Trump is president, the left will be united against him, and Biden seems to be working effectively with Sanders supporters at the moment. In the long run, I can definitely see it happening, as elderly liberals die off and are replaced by cancel culture warriors and socialists. The moderate right has been moribund since 2008; it will ultimately have to choose between a coalition with the moderate left or with an extreme right that openly values racism and Christianity over liberal democracy. My guess is that we’re a decade away from a development that promises great danger for our political system.