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The much-ballyhooed Gaza “peace agreement” is actually a cease-fire with some vague aspirations for the future. There is good reason to doubt that Phase 2 will actually be implemented. Trump desperately wants a Nobel Peace Prize, however. He won’t get one for the little that has been accomplished to date. As a result, he may be willing to push Bibi harder than usual to get the international validation he so desperately craves.

I noted during his first term that Trump’s vices are mitigated by his other vices, not his few virtues. This is a classic example of that phenomenon.

Trump is, of course, a passionate supporter of crypto, which is making him billions of dollars, at least on paper. The NYT, however, tells us today that Maduro is using crypto to avoid American sanctions and keep the Venezuelan economy afloat, at least by today’s low standards, thereby frustrating Trump’s plans to get rid of him.

The message here is that the blockchain bows to no one, not even Trump.

Trump tells the public that he won’t touch the East Wing of the White House in his effort to build a large new ballroom. Instead, without seeking the proper authorizations, he bulldozes it. The new ballroom will be funded by extremely wealthy supporters and will look like something that belongs at Versailles.

As a metaphor for his presidency, could you possibly do better than that?

What a difference a year makes! Our mountain community was wrecked by Helene in 2024, and we had no running water the week before we left. This year, the fall colors have been resplendent, and as usual, it is very painful to leave. But it is already getting uncomfortably cold, and next week will be brutal. Ready or not, we have to go.

Florida will be different, too. For once, our home will be intact. Ron DeSantis is a lame duck, largely despised by the state leadership of his own party. Wokeness has had its day; the 2026 campaign will most likely revolve around financial issues. The candidates in the governor’s race will have difficulty running the usual outsider against liberal coastal elites campaign; they will have to define themselves relative to DeSantis’ legacy. It should be fascinating.

We will have a ringside seat for it.

Oil prices are falling because the projected world demand is being crushed by Trump’s tariffs. Those same tariffs are also driving up the cost of production. The American oil industry consequently is suffering from diminished profits.

Like the farmers, oil companies are among Trump’s biggest supporters. Trump even demanded $1 billion in campaign contributions from them last year in exchange for the additional profits that were bound to roll in. What do you suppose the oil company executives are thinking now?

Maybe they’ll ask for a bailout from American taxpayers, just like the farmers. Hey, it worked for Argentina.

Trump undoubtedly wants to use tariff revenues to fund his evolving farmer aid program without any involvement from Congress. Thus far, he hasn’t been able to find any plausible legal basis for doing so. What does that mean for the future?

It is a point of leverage for the Democrats. They should demand significant concessions in exchange for opening the tariff vault to compensate farmers for the damages they are suffering as a result of the tariffs and deportations.

Ron DeSantis desperately wants to be our president, but by the end of next year, he won’t even be a governor. He can’t do much about his unpleasant personality, and he knows that his favorite wokeness horse won’t run far in 2028. What can he do to keep his hopes alive?

Focus on the issues that really motivate the base and the donor class. First, there was Alligator Alcatraz. Then he decided to support a movement to cut or even completely eliminate property taxes. And as of today, he is going back to an issue that helped inspire the Tea Party–term limits for members of Congress.

Will it work? Based on his uneasy relationship with Trump’s most avid supporters, probably not, but give him some credit for persistence.

On substance, Javier Milei’s economic program is about as anti-populist as it could be, which sets him apart from Trump. On style, however, the two are very similar. As a result, Trump is using American money to prop up the peso and offering to buy more Argentinian beef, thereby offending American agricultural interests. This level of support, however, is contingent on a victory for Milei’s allies in the upcoming election. Is that likely to work?

The Argentinians have a terrible record of paying back the IMF, and more recent history indicates that voters in other liberal democratic countries hate being bullied by Trump. You can, therefore, expect the Milei program to take an electoral battering, the peso to fall, and the failed bailout to cost us money.

If I’m right, the “America First” crowd will not be thrilled.

Most of Trump’s outrageous behavior is actually fairly predictable. Every now and then, however, he comes up with something that makes me gasp. That was the case this afternoon, when I read in the NYT that he has filed a (completely baseless) $230 million claim against the DOJ for alleged harassment starting in 2016. The fate of this claim will certainly be decided by one of his appointees, and possibly by a man who was his defense lawyer when he was out of office.

You couldn’t even make this up. Under the circumstances, I’m surprised he only asked for $230 million. Why not $15 billion, the figure he is using with the NYT?

Assume, for purposes of argument, that a combination of right-wing militias, Red Guards, and regular federal troops is operating openly in blue state cities to suppress voter turnout next November. It would be a nightmare, but it isn’t hard to imagine at this point. How can the Democrats fight back?

All the suppression in the world won’t work if the states permit voting by mail. That may be one of the reasons Trump hates it so much.

The Democrats will run as one against Trump and the current state of the country in 2026; that much is clear. But what will the GOP message be? How will the party that controls the government deal with a status quo that most people dislike?

Here is the playbook:

1. While Trump never puts it in these terms, lots of GOP pundits view his economic program as short-term pain for long-term gain. They will be praying that the long-term gain starts showing up in 2026.
2. Crime, crime, all the time.
3. We hate trans people and illegal immigrants. Democrats love them and hate you.
4. God, I hope those gerrymanders work as promised.

Does that sound very inspiring to you, particularly if the economy sags?

The “No Kings” demonstrations attracted millions and got under Trump’s skin. That makes them a success. Why did they work so well?

For two reasons. First of all, they were characterized by an atmosphere of fun and frivolity that, to any fair observer, rebutted Trump’s argument that the demonstrators hated America. Second, the slogan is clear and encompasses virtually all of the shortcomings of the administration. Capricious one-man rule doesn’t just threaten your civil liberties; it also generates bad economic policy.

If you’re a fundamentalist Christian, you believe that people and animals are two completely separate categories. People have souls and animals don’t. Of course, in order to believe that, you have to ignore a boatload of empirical evidence about biology and evolution, which is why most of us aren’t fundamentalist Christians.

If you’re a materialist, on the other hand, you think both humans and animals suffer the same fate–permanent extinction–at death. It is a theory that appears to fit the facts as we know them. However, as I noted in a previous post, it requires you to believe that ideas are created by matter in motion; in other words, concepts like justice have no existence independent of the world in which we live. In addition, it flies in the face of the personal experiences described in previous posts. As a result, in spite of its intellectual attractions, I do not accept it.

That leaves me with the animal problem: do they pass on to the other side? Does every living creature, however humble in its attributes, go to the other side? Does it mean all living things are reincarnated? Or is there some line between the animals that go to the other side and those that don’t?

My insight into this question is more limited than I would like to admit. All I can say for sure is that one of my dogs appeared to me from the other side, so if there is a line, he was on the human side of it. I suspect there is a line between most animals and, say, insects and snakes. I just don’t know exactly where it is.

With that, I have reached the end of my Metaphysical Monday posts. They are intended to be read together and in order, starting with the one on authority from late July. If any of them are helpful to someone out there, they will be a success.

Inequality was soaring. There were huge battles over immigration. Populists were starting to play a larger role in the political arena. A crackdown on abortion had begun. Tariffs, interest rates, and the regulation of business were big economic issues. The Supreme Court turned to the right. Globalization and technological changes were remaking the face of the country, for good and for ill.

Is it the late 19th century or 2025? It’s both.

J.D. blew off public criticism of the racist texts. What conclusions should we draw from that?

Like his boss, J.D. sees the extreme right as an indispensable ally in the battle against the left no matter how appalling its language and behavior it might be. After all, you can count on them when things get tough–just look at the militias on January 6.