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Donald Trump replaced the Iran nuclear deal with a “maximum pressure” campaign. As everyone outside of Jerusalem and the White House predicted, the new approach led to lots of misery on the part of the Iranian people, but neither resulted in regime change nor a major modification of the Iranian government’s behavior. Today, we have reached an equilibrium that satisfies nobody. Can Biden put the nuclear deal back together?

It won’t be easy, because neither side was completely satisfied with it. The Iranians didn’t see the economic benefits that they expected, while the Americans wanted longer timeframes on nukes and more constraints on Iranian aggression outside its borders. My guess is that the deal, to have any chance of success, will have to be reframed to meet the evolving needs of both sides. That means economic aid, not just the ability to trade, for the Iranians, and longer timeframes and more restrictions on Iranian conventional weapons for the Americans.

Don’t count on it working, due to intense domestic political opposition on both sides. And if it doesn’t? The danger of stumbling into war is still very real.

You can sort of understand and tolerate it when the GOP leadership says nothing about Trump’s frivolous election-related lawsuits, because the litigation won’t change the outcome of the election, and court battles are as American as apple pie. Attempts to persuade state officials to ignore state law and refuse to certify totally lawful results, however, are in a completely different category. They are an attempt to subvert the system, not to work within it to the bitter end.

Trump is going to do what he always does, but any GOP leader who acquiesces to this kind of behavior is marking himself as an enemy of liberal democracy in this country, and should expect consequences.

Let’s rub it in! Here are some ways in which Trump resembles Jimmy Carter:

1. Both ran as outsiders determined, in their very different ways, to clean up Washington;
2. Both won narrow victories over successors to the last elected president of the other party;
3. Both were ineffective leaders; and
4. Both were ultimately overwhelmed by a crisis not of their making (pandemic; Iran).

They’re so similar, they could be twins! Well, not really.

The Democrats won a crushing victory as a result of the Great Recession in 2008. Over 200,000 deaths, a sharp recession, and a mediocre recovery arising from a pandemic produced mixed results in 2020. Why the difference?

Three reasons:

1. THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS WERE DIFFERENT, AND LESS WIDELY FELT: Everyone, including the wealthy, experienced the impacts of the Great Recession, which was in full swing at the time of the election. Unemployment was skyrocketing, home prices fell, and markets collapsed. This time, the markets, after some initial softness, did not collapse; some people and companies actually made money. Federal legislation eased the pain for the unemployed, and the economy was improving at the time of the election. As a result, Trump received credit, not blame, for the economy.
2. TRUMP WASN’T BLAMED FOR THE PANDEMIC BY MOST SWING VOTERS: Bush and the GOP were widely perceived as being responsible for the Great Recession. No matter how poor his response was, no one could say that Trump caused the virus.
3. ONWARD, CHRISTIAN SOLDIERS: Gay marriage and bathroom bills weren’t even on the horizon in 2008. The culture wars have gotten much more intense since then; today, Christians look at the future and see political correctness as an existential threat. Their support for liberal democracy can no longer be taken for granted.

More than any of America’s erstwhile adversaries, with the possible exception of Iran, Donald Trump really hated the EU. As a result, Merkel and Macron, among many others, will be relieved to see the back of him. They and Biden will be eager to get things back to normal.

Relations will undoubtedly improve immediately. The frivolous tariffs will disappear, the US will re-enter the Paris Agreement, and there will be no further threats to leave NATO. Biden will be asking the EU to help contain China and Iran, and should have some success. There will be some new and difficult issues to deal with in the process of performing the repair job, however:

1. The European leaders know that about 70 million Americans voted for Trump even after seeing how much harm he could do over four years. They will be concerned about a future populist turn in American politics, and may choose to hedge their bets more than in the past;
2. The dominant protectionist gene in the EU is starting to assert itself again. It won’t be going away any time soon;
3. The phenomenon of illiberal democracies within the EU presents problems for both the American and EU leadership;
4. It is unlikely that Biden and the EU will see completely eye-to-eye on the treatment of American tech giants; and
5. The thorny issue of European underinvestment in defense will continue, even if it gets less emphasis from both sides.

Special elections are about mobilizing your own voters. Period. There will be no effort to persuade swing voters here.

History tells us the GOP is better at this, and should win. In this case, however, the ongoing Trump campaign against nonexistent voter fraud works in favor of the Democrats. What’s the point of going to the polls to vote for Republicans if you genuinely believe the Democrats have installed software in voting systems that will flip just enough votes to win? And how do the GOP candidates run commercials asking people to check socialism and political correctness in the Biden administration when Trump doesn’t concede that there will be one?

This situation is temporary. It will disappear after the Electoral College votes are in. But every little bit helps in what figures to be two close contests.

If there is one thing that Trump loves almost as much as himself, it’s leverage. To that end, expect him to keep the 2024 option open as long as possible, for two reasons:

1. Politically, it keeps him relevant, guarantees him the attention that he craves so desperately, and makes him a kingmaker at the very least; and
2. It helps him with his creditors, regardless of whether he ultimately runs or not. If you run Deutsche Bank, you have no reason to extend his loans if you know he’s not running. But would you take that risk if you’re still dealing with someone who could be occupying the Oval Office and regulating you in a few years? Probably not.

Frankly, Donald Trump didn’t give a damn about Cuba. His objectives there were: (1) to retain the votes of Cuban-Americans; (2) to keep Marco Rubio happy and on his team; and (3) to obliterate Obama’s legacy to the maximum extent possible.

Based on those criteria, his policy was a success. However, it can easily be overturned. Expect Biden to do so relatively quickly.

The PBP faction of the Republican Party understands perfectly that Trump has lost the election. In the interests of maintaining party unity as long as possible, its members have said as little as possible about Trump’s increasingly bizarre fraud theories. The moment of reckoning, however, gets closer with every passing day.

No later than the day the Electoral College votes, and probably sooner than that, the PBPs will have to acknowledge reality and start working with the president-elect. At that point, the portion of the Reactionary faction that is still loyal to Trump (i.e., most of it) will scream that it has been stabbed in the back by RINOs and will call for revenge. What happens after that will have a significant impact on the direction of the GOP as it goes into the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Trump has made a living dividing the country. It only seems fitting that one of the last acts of his presidency will be to split his own party.

Justin Trudeau must think he died and went to heaven. He no longer has to deal with Donald Trump! Relations with the United States can return to normal again.

Well, with the pandemic in place, not exactly normal. Nevertheless, this is one place where it is relatively easy to put the genie back in its bottle. The stupid steel tariffs will be eliminated, the occasionally angry rhetoric will cease, and our relationship will be friendly and productive again.

We have an important competitive advantage relative to China in the quality of our neighbors. Trump was so enamored of his “America First” approach to the world that he was unable to see that. Biden is not so foolish.

(Donald Trump is wandering around the White House desperately trying to figure out a way to pull a rabbit out of a hat. He suddenly thinks that his strongman buddies can do something to keep him in power. Inevitably, he starts by calling Putin).

T: Vlad the Impaler! I need your help again, bro!

P: I’m not your bro, Donald. I’m very disappointed in you. I told you a thousand times you needed to be a proper strongman and take charge. You never did. Now, look at you. You’re a loser!

T: But it doesn’t have to be that way! I’m still alive, and fighting! We can still pull this thing out–you and me, like old times!

P: It’s over, Donald. You failed me. You just didn’t have what it took to be a real strongman. I’ve moved on–you should, too. Goodbye.

(Shaken, Trump calls Duterte).

T: Rodrigo, you son of a bitch!

D: Trump, you son of a whore! What can I do for you?

T: I need some help to stay in power.

D: It’s too late for that. Do you remember your line about shooting people in broad daylight on Fifth Avenue?

T: Of course.

D: You should have done it. That’s what I would have done. People would have respected and feared you. Now, they don’t take you seriously. There’s nothing I can do to help. Goodbye.

(Next, Trump tries Xi)

T: Xi-man! I need your help. I’ll trade you Hong Kong and Taiwan for help in staying in power.

X: You don’t have anything to trade. Why would we help you, anyway? You did nothing but complain about us.

T: That was just business. You know I never said anything bad about you.

X: You lost. Anyway, we don’t interfere in America’s internal affairs. We have nothing to discuss. Goodbye.

(Trump tries calling Kim, but Kim won’t even pick up the phone. Erdogan is his last hope).

T: How’s my favorite Muslim?

E: I’m expanding my powers every day. Unlike you.

T: I need some help here. Can’t you do anything for me?

E: For old time’s sake, I’m willing to give you and your family asylum in Istanbul. You’ll be safe from your creditors and the law here. But Ivanka and Melania will have to wear Muslim dress.

T: Thanks for the offer. I’ll think about it.

(His foreign options exhausted, he goes off to discuss Erdogan’s offer with Melania and Ivanka).

“The Crown” is about the severe restrictions the system puts on the life choices of all of the members of the royal family, and how they react to them. Everyone inevitably rebels in one way or another, but those who persist, or go over the line, are crushed. The viewer can’t help but think that it is a bad bargain for all of them. It is a case, in a backhanded way, for a republic.

But Trump has shown that there are problems with republics, too. While he has been a failure as our country’s chief executive, he has been an unmitigated disaster as our head of state. As our national representative to the world, he sends the message that Americans are stupid, crass, and narcissistic. He embarrasses us every day he sits in the White House.

For all of their shortcomings, no member of the royal family has ever shamed the residents of the UK the way Trump has humiliated us. Monarchy, anyone?

As I’ve noted before, there are two models for American policy towards Afghanistan. In the Korean model, we identify Afghanistan as being uniquely important and dangerous as a result of its history, topography, and location, and commit to keeping troops there indefinitely. The Vietnam model, of course, directs us to get our troops out regardless of the consequences.

Trump clearly prefers the Vietnam model. He’s been trying to withdraw completely for most of his term, but has been frustrated by the military leadership and his own fear that the Taliban would parade into Kabul on his watch, which would make him a loser. It is very possible that his latest flurry of firings in the Pentagon was designed to assist him in the process of forcing a withdrawal. Biden basically agrees that, in today’s world, there is no justification for treating Afghanistan differently than a host of other countries that, deliberately or not, provide safe havens for terrorists throughout the world, but it is less likely that he would withdraw completely. His goal appears to be to maintain a small counterterrorism force there and to leave the country to its own devices in most other respects.

In short, the differences between the two on Afghanistan are a matter of degree, not kind.

It would be fair to say that Trump lost to Obama, the president whose legacy he has tried so hard to obliterate. In addition, he put himself in a category with George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter by failing to win a second term.

JIMMY CARTER! God, he would hate that. He should be reminded of it at every turn.

Trump’s most recent public activities are not clearly inconsistent with the notion that he intends to use extraconstitutional means to remain in power even after losing the election. Given that he is spending most of his time playing golf, watching TV, and tweeting, however, it appears far more likely that he is throwing a tantrum without any deeper political meaning. If that is the case, the situation will ultimately resolve itself without any drastic action from the Biden camp.

That said, it would be a mistake to minimize the importance of what is happening now, and what has happened over the last four years. Trump has shown the world that he can trample on constitutional norms without any consequences, given the unconditional support of Republicans in Congress and the trusty base. He is currently doing everything he can to erode trust in our electoral system, which is a cornerstone of liberal democracy. That will be a lesson to any future Franco wannabe who is currently watching and waiting for his turn.

In short, this farce is just the dress rehearsal. The real battle with the forces of illiberalism has yet to be fought, much less won.