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Hardly a day went by during 2023 without blaring headlines about House GOP dysfunction. From the chaotic speaker election in January to the gut-wrenching battle over the debt ceiling to the defenestration of McCarthy to the second chaotic speaker election to the battles over the budget to the George Santos odyssey to the Ukraine aid blockade to a potential suicidal Biden impeachment, the House was always in the news, and never in a good way.

And yet, the GOP hasn’t paid a price for it yet. For their success in creating constant, pointless turbulence without throwing America completely over the guardrails, the Four Horsemen of the House GOP–McCarthy, Santos, Matt Gaetz, and Mike Johnson–are my men of the year.

According to our local newspaper, the net worth of the average American rose 37 percent between 2019 and 2022. Unemployment is around a 50-year low. Inflation has fallen to the point that it is around the average of the last 50 years. Interest rates are higher than they were in the recent past, but about average for my lifetime. The picture looks very bright on its face, but most Americans are complaining. Why?

I think housing prices, which represent a large part of the increased average net worth, are a big part of the puzzle. The average renter experiences the high prices on a daily basis and has reason to complain about them. The average owner, who benefits from the housing price inflation, doesn’t think about his increased net worth very much; he is more focused on higher gas and food prices, which he pays every day.

Hence, the apparently irrational grumbling about the state of the economy.

After the successful Trump impeachment in January 2021, he was permanently disqualified from office. The GOP candidate in 2024 would have to be someone different.

Trump wasn’t going away, however. As he, and the base, viewed it, he was the only meaningful voter in the upcoming primaries. He was the decider. The candidate who did the best job of sucking up to him and offering him the greatest amount of influence would be the winner.

It was a tight contest. All of the candidates were amazingly obsequious. But in the end, DeSantis stood out, just as he did during the Florida primaries in 2018. Trump gave him the nod, and the process was over, just like that.

I was clearly right on three of my five predictions. Unlike many commentators, I was skeptical of Ukraine’s ability to break through the Russian defenses, so I opined that the war would turn into a stalemate. I also predicted correctly that there would be no US-Iran war, and that, without fanfare, the US would turn to a policy of deterrence in lieu of negotiations or regime change with North Korea.

The other two predictions involved China and Turkey; I suggested there would be some saber-rattling with Taiwan and Greece, respectively, but no war. I was right on the no war issue. Whether there was enough saber-rattling to warrant a mention in my list, I will leave to you.

I made five predictions for 2023. How did they turn out? Would I have made money in Vegas?

Four of the five were correct. The debt ceiling issue was resolved by a coalition of Democrats and GOP moderates; the Supreme Court counterrevolution picked up steam; inflation eased, in accordance with my two-year rule; and Biden chose to run again. The fifth one was a fail, however; the DeSantis campaign is on life support.

I was perfectly aware of some of DeSantis’ shortcomings as a candidate, but I never imagined he would pick unpopular positions and limit his appeal to the voters who weren’t available to him. I also didn’t see that Trump would benefit from, as he and the base see it, being crucified by the deep state on a daily basis. I don’t think the dynamic of the campaign would be substantially different if the indictments had not occurred, but it is possible that it would have been. We will never know.

The Biden impeachment process is a wedge issue for the GOP. On the one hand, the base is demanding it as revenge for the two Trump impeachments, and Trump wants it to strengthen his spurious claim for false equivalence. On the other hand, impeachment is likely to galvanize a largely demoralized left, and it is nothing but poison for GOP House members in swing districts. Thus far, the leadership has bridged the gap by keeping the process going, but very slowly. What happens if the base will no longer take no for an answer? What would the process look like?

My guess is that Johnson and McConnell will treat it as the embarrassment it is and avoid public hearings to the maximum extent possible. Hunter Biden will not be given an opportunity to speak to the American people. The decision will be made on the existing written record, and as quickly as possible. The “trial” will be a pro forma event, Biden will be acquitted, and we will go on from there.

Next Christmas will be like none other in my lifetime. Why? Because we will be living with one of two realities: if Trump wins, we will be looking forward to at least four years of fascism; and if he doesn’t, he will claim the election was rigged, and he will call for another insurrection to keep himself out of jail. This time, the battle will be at the local level, and will be far more serious, as the extreme elements of the red team will be locked and loaded and will have the support of some state and local officials and law enforcement agencies.

So enjoy Christmas 2023. Savor the moment. Eat, drink, and be merry. There isn’t anything we can do about next year until it’s here.

So we’re hurtling towards the new year.

I can’t say that I’m brimming with cheer.

Trump fills me with dread.

Is democracy dead?

We won’t know till November is here.

The Supreme Court has refused to conduct an expedited review of Trump’s ludicrous immunity defense. That means his March trial is likely to be postponed until the bulk of the primary season is over. Here are my observations on the issue:

1. Obviously, this will help Trump win the nomination. What it means for the general election is unclear.
2. DeSantis may decide to stay in the race even after a Florida humiliation in the hope that things will change after a trial. That probably helps Trump, too, by keeping his opposition divided.
3. If Trump really believed in his innocence, he would be demanding a quick trial. The fact that he is playing stall ball speaks for itself.
4. Trump’s defenses can be evaluated without a record, so the usual reason for rejecting an expedited process does not apply here. Is the Supreme Court simply trying to avoid dealing with a hot potato until it has no choice, or is it actively attempting to assist Trump? We don’t know the answer to that yet.
5. Trump will be demanding an expedited review of the Colorado Supreme Court decision on the Fourteenth Amendment issue while he is stalling on the criminal defenses. Will the Court find that the public interest attached to keeping him on the ballot is so strong that it will grant his request? If it does, and I think it will, how will it justify bending the rules for Trump, but not the DOJ and the electorate as a whole?

Trump insists he has never read “Mein Kampf.” For once, I believe him. “Mein Kampf” is a book, after all. Trump doesn’t do books. If you distilled it into a few bullet points–maybe.

The question then is, how did he come up with the “poisoning the blood” and “vermin” phrases? Did he make them up himself? Did he find them on his social media platform, Lying Psycho? Or was he just pick them up when he was hanging with some of his Nazi friends?

I don’t know the answer to that, although I would be leaning towards one of the final two possibilities. Either way, I don’t take any comfort from Trump’s failure to explore the actual source; the phrases speak for themselves.

Trump has big, big plans for the military in his second term. Homeland Security doesn’t have anything like the resources he needs for his immigrant scheme, so he will be using the military to build the wall, construct and staff the new migrant camps, and, in all likelihood, conduct raids. In addition, he will be relying on the military to crush dissent, particularly in blue states. Finally, he will be waging war against Mexico. It’s an ambitious agenda.

Most of this, of course, will be totally illegal, but there is no reason to believe the political or the legal system will do much to stop him. Only the military can, by refusing to obey unlawful orders. Will they?

Let’s hope we never find out.

Donald Trump made it clear during his presidency that he considered the performance of the stock market, not the polls, the most accurate reflection of his public approval. He governed that way, too; his tax cut, which ostentatiously put the interests of capitalists even above wealthy wage-earners, was a bonanza for the rich.

During the 2020 campaign, Trump predicted that the market would collapse if Biden won. He was wrong–grotesquely so. And so, a few days ago, he complained that the records that are currently being set on Wall Street were just making a bunch of rich guys richer.

Take it from the guy who wants to impose a 10 percent tariff on imported consumer goods and use it for another corporate tax cut–that’s a terrible state of affairs.

He was obviously insane, because, based on his behavior, he clearly thought he was living in America.

The reliably wrong progressive Tressie Macmillan Cottom acknowledges that unemployment is very low, inflation has reached reasonable levels, real wages are rising, and inequality is falling. Nevertheless, she insists that the economy sucks. Why? Because prices are higher than they were two years ago, and the welfare state–particularly with regard to child care–hasn’t been expanded to compensate.

Two observations are pertinent here:

1. The welfare state was, in fact, expanded during the pandemic years. The expansion was temporary, due to resistance, not from Biden and the Democrats, but from a united GOP and Joe Manchin. Wouldn’t it make more sense to attack the GOP on this issue than to whine about the failures of the Democrats?
2. To the very limited extent that Biden has any responsibility for inflation, it revolves around the economic impacts of the pandemic welfare state expansion that Ms. Cottom thinks was so essential.

What alternative is the left proposing here? I don’t see one that makes sense.

The Trump/Rubio approach to Maduro and Venezuela didn’t result in regime change; it only caused lots of misery. Millions of Venezuelans, seeing no future in their country, decided to try to immigrate to the US. They put a huge strain on our system. Trump and the GOP are benefiting from the problem that they effectively created.

It’s sickening.