There should be two bills. The first should be, essentially, a disaster relief bill; it should pass quickly, and with bipartisan support. It should include the following: an extension of unemployment benefits and pandemic business relief until the early fall; adequate funds to open schools and expedite testing and vaccinations; and state and local government relief. It should not include checks to individuals.
The second bill would be a purely partisan initiative, and would pass through reconciliation. This one would include permanent expansions of the welfare state, some sort of increase in the minimum wage, and funds for green infrastructure. Most of this would be paid for by tax increases on corporations and the wealthy. It would take longer, but that’s OK; it isn’t a response to an immediate emergency.
Unfortunately, the scheme I have just described is not happening. There are basically two reasons for it. First, the GOP incorrectly continues to view state and local aid as some sort of inappropriate bailout fund for blue states. Second, the Democrats have fallen in love with the $1,400 checks, which they apparently view as a big vote winner after Georgia. If they were an incentive to the GOP to vote for the disaster relief bill, I could swallow them, but they have become something completely different, and less savory.
We are going to end up with a mishmash. It’s not going to help with the second bill, and the impacts of the individual checks are ultimately going to be negative, both politically and economically.