The North Carolina Senate race pits Roy Cooper, a popular Democratic former governor, against Michael Whatley, a veteran Republican bureaucrat who, as far as I can tell, has never actually run for office himself. A PAC supporting Cooper is already running ads slamming Whatley for his failures as Trump’s Hurricane Helene “recovery czar.” What can we expect from this race?
Cooper starts with plenty of money in the bank, a large advantage in name recognition, and a host of issues to run on. It is highly unlikely that invoking the sacred name of Trump is going to help Whatley much with swing voters in a purple state under today’s circumstances. Whatley will wind up talking endlessly about how Cooper is soft on crime and trans people because, well, what else can he say?
Barring events between now and November that move the needle substantially on Trump’s popularity, this is Cooper’s race to lose. He had better not lose it if the Democrats have any realistic hope of flipping the Senate.