Many commentators have identified an analogy between the current state of affairs in Southeast Asia and Europe in 1914, with China, as the dissatisfied rising power, playing the part of Germany, and the US playing the part of the status quo party, the UK. The Chinese themselves are well aware of it; I understand that Chinese TV broadcast a lengthy series on World War I with the analogy in mind some time ago.
Must our conflicting interests lead to the same result? I think not, for the following reasons:
1. China, unlike pre-World War I Germany, is not a militaristic society. Chinese patriotism revolves around the superiority of its culture, not the army.
2. The Chinese have no reliable allies in their backyard. Encirclement is, therefore, even more of a concern for them than it was for the Germans.
3. The Pacific Ocean is a lot wider than the English Channel. The US has the ability to retreat from the South China Sea, if necessary, without fatally compromising its strategic position and exposing itself to invasion. The UK in 1914 didn’t have that luxury.