Desperate times call for desperate measures. That’s the reason dramatic increases in the size of the federal government have been associated with crises–the Great Depression, World War II, and the 2008 Great Recession.
There are no guarantees that the current conditions will remain in place in November, 2020. Absent a fundamental change, however, the Democratic nominee will be facing an election in which real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are both around three percent.
It is imaginable, given Trump’s poor poll numbers, that a nominee who promises to bring decency and competence back to the White House, along with some incremental changes favoring working people over the wealthy, can win even in the face of the three percents. Is it plausible, however, that a Sanders or a Warren “revolution” can succeed without some sort of a cataclysm between now and November, 2020?
No.