In 2000, it was Ralph Nader, who bears (in spite of his denials) some responsibility for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Iraq. In 2016, it was Jill Stein, who insisted against all appearances that there was no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. In 2020, it seems, it may be Howard Schultz, who has the brilliant idea that what we really need now is a successful outsider businessman to clean things up in Washington. Where have I heard that before?
tI assume that Schultz takes his inspiration from Macron’s success as an independent centrist. Unfortunately for him, the American political system differs from that of France, as follows:
- The left in France was dispirited and exhausted at the time of the election. That will emphatically not be the case with the Democrats in 2020.
- The French system has a runoff. Ours doesn’t. In France, he could hope to win the support of the left if he could get into a runoff against Trump. Here, that can’t happen; he would have to win outright in November.
The fact is that the red and blue bases constitute about 70 to 80 percent of the electorate. Schultz could only hope to compete for the remaining 20 to 30 percent. That’s not enough, realistically speaking, to get elected.
And so, if he decides to go where Michael Bloomberg wisely chose not to, he can only be a spoiler in 2020.