There should be no partisan division on one point: Nicolas Maduro is a singularly inept tyrant. He has trashed his country’s constitution and driven its economy into the ground. The exodus that inevitably followed is causing great hardship for Venezuela’s neighbors. Everyone except the Russians, Chinese, and Cubans would be better off if he left, and who cares about them?
But still, he clings to power, and he clearly has the public support of the higher levels of the military. So what happens now? Here are my thoughts:
- The Trump administration has limited itself to public statements of support for the opposition up until now, which was wise.
- Now, however, we have taken concrete action by recognizing the head of the opposition as the legitimate Venezuelan head of state.
- That, in effect, is a red line. We can’t let Maduro stay in power without embarrassing ourselves at this point.
- Brazil and Colombia have ideological issues with Maduro and have been impacted by the influx of refugees. If they aren’t willing to take military action to displace him, we should not have created the red line.
- We could refuse to buy Venezuelan oil. That would have a very significant impact on the government (and American consumers) in the short run. Trump has no obvious legal right to take that step, however, and in a matter of weeks, the world oil markets would adjust, and supply chains would be changed. If the embargo didn’t cause the government to collapse immediately, therefore, it probably wouldn’t work at all.
- We could impose a blockade on oil tankers leaving Venezuela. That would probably work, but it would be an act of war without congressional approval.
- We can provide moral and material support to an invading force from Brazil or Colombia. If those countries aren’t willing to take military action, however, that obviously won’t work.
- Given our checkered history in South America and the obvious analogy to Putin in Ukraine, direct military involvement on our part would be a disaster.
What does Trump have in mind? Honestly, I have no idea. Let’s just hope his plan is better than the one for the shutdown.
So much winning! Are you tired of it yet?