Jeremy Corbyn clearly hopes that the Brexit mess will drop power in his lap. He might be right, but it won’t be automatic, and he needs to play his cards properly.
Here are three Brexit scenarios, and the likely results:
- THE MAY DEAL IS DEFEATED, CORBYN PROMISES A SECOND REFERENDUM, REMAINER MPS ABANDON THE GOVERNMENT, AND HE WINS THE ENSUING ELECTION. The first part of this is virtually assured; the rest depends on Corbyn’s willingness to support the second referendum. His party supports it overwhelmingly, but he clearly has reservations. Will he change his mind? TBD.
- THE MAY DEAL IS SOMEHOW APPROVED BY PARLIAMENT, AND THE BREXITEERS LEAVE THE GOVERNMENT. Neither part of that is at all plausible.
- THE MAY DEAL FAILS, THE UK CRASHES OUT OF THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL, CHAOS ENSUES, AND THE VOTERS RETALIATE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION. This could happen, but there is no guarantee that the no-deal option will be as catastrophic as most experts think. Furthermore, the Conservative Party will no longer be divided by Brexit at the next election, the chaos will almost certainly be over, and the voters may have their minds on something else by then.