Given that the Democrats are the nurturing, welfare state loving “mommy” party and the GOP is the swaggering “daddy” party, it is hardly surprising that a gender gap is an enduring feature of American politics. Trump, however, has driven the gap to new levels. Angry men are his core constituents.
The Democratic nominee, regardless of who he or she is, will feature a female-friendly platform in 2020. As a result, if the Democrats want to win back at least some of the angry men, the key variable is the identity of the nominee. Here are my thoughts on the matter:
- If I could design a perfect 2020 nominee, it would be a man. There are no perfect nominees, however, and electability cannot be reduced to a simple formula based on identity. If the most electable candidate turns out, after extensive vetting, to be a woman, so be it.
- Many of the angry men are pissed off for a variety of reasons that go beyond gender, and cannot be reached. The Democrats are reaching for swing voters, not for everyone.
- The “Clinton problem” that I described in a previous post is, to my knowledge, limited to Warren. The other female putative candidates don’t really remind me of Hillary, although that remains to be seen.
- Harris would bring a slight whiff of glamor to the race that might actually be appealing to men. The dynamics of a Harris-Trump race would be fascinating. Just the thought of it intrigues me.
So how does this turn out in the end? To be honest, I have no idea, and neither do you.