Ironically, the continuing presence of IS in Syria actually made Trump’s life easier; it provided a compelling justification for keeping American troops in harm’s way. Now that the “caliphate” is only virtual, a difficult decision cannot be avoided.
The decisionmaking process on this issue has been typically chaotic, but it appears that Trump has decided to bring the troops home. Is he right? Here are the pros and cons:
FOR WITHDRAWAL: The troops will not have a well-defined objective if they stay; they will be in danger from a variety of potential enemies; their continuing presence in Syria is damaging our relationship with Turkey.
AGAINST WITHDRAWAL: Leaving will damage our credibility with the Kurds and any future partners in the area, and will cost us a place at the table for future peace talks; we will be acquiescing to Russian and Iranian dominance in Syria if we leave.
This is not a simple choice; all of the arguments on both sides have merit. On balance, however, I think Trump is right and the blob is wrong. The Kurds know we have a history of selling them out; they have undoubtedly already assumed that in their decisionmaking process. Our presence in Syria, even if we stay, is so limited that we will only be at the kids’ table at any future talks. Finally, and most importantly, if there was a time to intervene in Syria, it passed years ago. We can’t really do any good at this point. It’s time to get out and let Assad, Putin, and the Iranians do the heavy lifting.
Since Trump is such a great maker of deals, maybe he can trade this for a Turkish commitment to give up buying the Russian planes.