Mitt Romney ran in 2012 as a CD/PBP, not a Reactionary, even though the Reactionaries were (and are) the largest faction within the GOP. He nonetheless won the nomination for two reasons. First, he was shrewd enough to appropriate the immigration issue up front and thus make himself minimally acceptable to the Reactionaries; Donald Trump would learn from this and follow his lead in 2016. Second, he was unchallenged in his lane, while multiple candidates scrambled for Reactionary votes. The math was in his favor, and he took advantage of it.
If Biden runs in 2020, he could benefit from a similar dynamic. He won’t sparkle in debates, and he won’t have the support of young liberal activists. He will, however, have the Realo/White Guy lane to himself; there are still plenty of voters in that lane, even if they aren’t necessarily activists. He’s also at least minimally acceptable to the rest of the party. It could be enough to get him over the line as a transitional figure intended to heal the damage caused by Trump.
Michael Bloomberg could upset this apple cart, but I don’t think that would happen. More on him in a future post.