Historically, progress towards an “ever closer union” has been driven by an alliance between the French and the Germans. Over the last fifteen years, however, Germany has grown much faster than France, and the German government proved itself much better at getting things done. As a result, the center of power in the EU moved decisively towards Berlin.
The Great Recession, the bailouts, and the various euro crises put the Germans in a position to dictate terms to the rest of the EU. They consequently attempted to Teutonize the EU by imposing austerity on its debtors. Austerity resulted in widespread resentment, not a speedy recovery. In addition, the German attempt to share the burden of illegal immigration among all of the EU states was an admirable failure, and led to political problems at home.
The German effort to remake the EU through its economic and political clout was largely inadvertent, was never popular, and is over. Today, the leadership of the EU comes from . . . no one. Dreams of an “ever closer union” have been put on hold, and the EU is just trying to survive. How will it evolve? More on that later in the week.