Plenty of ink has been spilled recently over the commanding lead the GOP outsider non-politicians have over the establishment candidates in the polls. And with good reason–it defies history, if not logic, and it is the single most significant development that has occurred since the race began. Why has this happened?
In my opinion, there are three reasons for it:
1. The George W. Bush Administration discredited the GOP establishment. Bush himself retained a degree of popularity with Reactionaries because he was an evangelical and knew how to speak their language, but his presidency was viewed as a disaster by the right, as well as the left.
2. The right-wing media have told the public for the last eight years that the apocalypse is here. This includes media that everyone would agree are part of the establishment–not just a few nut job talk show hosts. If you continue to tell people that socialism is here and the end is nigh, why should the voters back moderates who did little or nothing to stop it from happening?
3. The politician candidates have done little or nothing to make the case for someone who understands the system. We live in a system with checks and balances. If the next GOP president wants to get anything done, he will have to do at least some reaching across the aisle. Apparently no one wants to admit that, but past success is the best argument in favor of an establishment candidate. Do you remember Jeb Bush or Chris Christie making that argument forcefully at either of the debates? Me, neither.