The analogy to the Thirty Years’ War looks better by the day. As it stands today, there are no less than four separate, but occasionally overlapping, conflicts in Syria:
- IS against the rest of the world;
- Assad against the rebels;
- The Turks against the Kurds, with the US attempting to smooth things over, and Russia throwing gas on the fire; and
- The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia against Iran and Hezbollah, with Russia supporting the latter group.
The first conflict is coming to a close. The second is winding down, but will not be finally resolved as long as the rebels have international support and a place of refuge in neighboring countries. The third will never really end, at least as a political issue. The final one is the one that matters to everyone who doesn’t live in Syria.
When it’s all said and done, my best guess is that the analogy will hold, and Syria will return to something similar to the status quo ante, only as a complete ruin.