According to The Economist, both American envoys and General Suleimani have been trying to persuade the Kurds to postpone their referendum, which tells you that America’s relationship with Iran is more complicated than Trump makes it out to be.
Our policy since the Bush Administration has been to hold Iraq together, at least in part because we believed we would be the predominant outside influence on the Iraqi government. In fact, the current Iraqi leadership is about as friendly to us as anyone could plausibly hope. On the other hand, the Iranians also have plenty of reason to believe that a unified Iraq will always be subject to their control. Only one of the two countries can be right.
If, for purposes of argument, you assume that the Iranians will probably gain the upper hand in Iraq, and that Iran is the devil, then isn’t it time to try something else? Wouldn’t it make sense to adopt something like the Biden Plan, support the Kurdish referendum, and start to patronize the Iraqi Sunnis? An “Iraq” consisting of three parts, two of them friendly to the United States, would make more sense than a unified nation doing the bidding of a mortal enemy.
Admittedly, supporting Kurdish independence would piss off Erdogan, but he’s already playing footsie with Putin, so it might be a good idea to show him that we have other options, as well.
It’s worth considering.