You probably thought that one minor silver lining inherent in the GOP victory in 2016 was an end to debt ceiling crises. But noooooooo!
I’m not sure how this is going to turn out, but here are the key questions:
1. Can Paul Ryan maintain control of the Freedom Caucus? Probably not. Boehner couldn’t, and the FC is even hungrier for a victory after the Obamacare repeal debacle.
2. Can Nancy Pelosi deliver enough votes for a clean increase? Yes. She has always come through when it mattered most, and a debt ceiling debacle would damage the Democrats’ brand as the responsible party.
3. Can Mulvaney be trusted? He’s saying the right things at the moment, but his heart isn’t in a clean increase. Given the degree of dysfunction in the administration, one can easily imagine him playing both sides of the street.
4. What will Trump do? This is, of course, the most important question. It is clear to me that there are two keys to persuading him to do what you want: be the last person to speak to him; and have a plausible argument that your position constitutes “winning.” Let’s hope the few adults in the administration can convince him that damaging the country’s credit and hurting the economy is not a “win.” Am I sure that will happen? No.